These are the 2024 US Senate election predictions, with 34 races in total. This page was last updated on September 10, 2024.
State-by-state ratings and best guesses for all 2024 US Senate races are below. Page will be updated regularly between now and November, with the final predictions being issued by November 3.
Election day in the United States is November 5, 2024.
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Additional Reading & Viewing
- US Senate Races: First Look
- Arizona Senate Race Preview
- Florida Senate Race Preview
- Montana Senate Race Preview
- New Jersey Senate Race Preview
- Ohio Senate Race Preview
- Texas Senate Race Preview
2024 US Senate Election Predictions: Overall and Map
The Republicans are predicted to win 50 seats, while Democrats and Democratic-affiliated Independents will win 48. Two seats are toss-ups. 50 seats are required for a majority if a particular party also controls the vice presidency; 51 seats are required if the vice president is of the other party.
2024 US Senate Election Predictions: Seat High-Low Ranges
2024 US Senate Election Predictions: State-by-State
States holding Senate races in 2024 are listed in alphabetical order. Listed below each prediction is the result of the most recent election in this seat. Information as to the major-party candidates is also listed for each race.
2024 is a Class I Senate election for its 33 total seats. There is one Class II election being held: A special election in Nebraska. Nebraska also has a regularly-scheduled Senate race occurring in this cycle.
| Arizona |
| Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I)* – Retiring |
| Ruben Gallego (D) |
| Kari Lake (R) |
 |
| 2018: Sinema (D) 49.96%, McSally (R) 47.61% |
| California |
| Sen. Laphonza Butler (D)* – Retiring |
| Adam Schiff (D) |
| Steve Garvey (R) |
 |
| 2018: Feinstein (D)* 54.16%, de León (D) 45.84% |
| Connecticut |
| Sen. Chris Murphy (D)* |
| Matthew Corey (R) |
| |
| 2018: Murphy (D)* 59.53%, Corey (R) 39.35% |
| Delaware |
| Sen. Tom Carper (D)* – Retiring |
| Lisa Blunt Rochester (D) |
| Eric Hansen (R) |
| |
| 2018: Carper (D)* 59.95%, Arlett (R) 37.81% |
| Florida |
| Sen. Rick Scott (R)* |
| Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) |
 |
| 2018: Scott (R) 50.05%, Nelson (D)* 49.93% |
| Hawaii |
| Sen. Mazie Hirono (D)* |
| Bob McDermott (R) |
| |
| 2018: Hirono (D) 71.15%, Curtis (R) 28.85% |
| Indiana |
| Sen. Mike Braun (R)* – Retiring |
| Jim Banks (R) |
| Valerie McCray (D) |
 |
| 2018: Braun (R) 50.73%, Donnelly (D)* 44.84% |
| Maine |
| Sen. Angus King (I)* |
| Demi Kouzounas (R) |
| David Costello (D) |
 |
| 2018: King (I)* 54.31%, Brakey (R) 35.23%, Ringelstein (D) 10.45% |
| Maryland |
| Sen. Ben Cardin (D)* – Retiring |
| Angela Alsobrooks (D) |
| Larry Hogan (R) |
 |
| 2018: Cardin (D)* 64.86%, Campbell (R) 30.31% |
| Massachusetts |
| Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D)* |
| GOP Primary September 3 |
| |
| 2018: Warren (D)* 60.34%, Diehl (R) 36.17% |
| Michigan |
| Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D)* – Retiring |
| Elissa Slotkin (D) |
| Mike Rogers (R) |
 |
| 2018: Stabenow (D)* 52.26%, James (R) 45.76% |
| Minnesota |
| Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D)* |
| Royce White (R) |
| |
| 2018: Klobuchar (D)* 60.31%, Newberger (R) 36.21% |
| Mississippi |
| Sen. Roger Wicker (R)* |
| Ty Pinkins (D) |
| |
| 2018: Wicker (R)* 58.49%, Baria (D) 39.47% |
| Missouri |
| Sen. Josh Hawley (R)* |
| Lucas Kunce (D) |
| |
| 2018: Hawley (R) 51.38%, McCaskill (D)* 45.57% |
| Montana |
| Sen. Jon Tester (D)* |
| Tim Sheehy (R) |
 |
| 2018: Tester (D)* 50.33%, Rosendale (R) 46.78% |
| Nebraska |
| Sen. Deb Fischer (R)* |
| Dan Osborn (I) |
| |
| 2018: Fischer (R)* 57.69%, Raybould (D) 38.62% |
| Nebraska – Special |
| Sen. Pete Ricketts (R)* |
| Preston Love, Jr. (D) |
| |
| 2020: Sasse (R)* 62.74%, Janicek (D) 24.43%, Love Jr. (D/WI) 6.28% |
| Nevada |
| Sen. Jacky Rosen (D)* |
| Sam Brown (R) |
 |
| 2018: Rosen (D) 50.41%, Heller (R)* 45.38% |
| New Jersey |
| Sen. George Helmy (D)* – Retiring |
| Andy Kim (D) |
| Curtis Bashaw (R) |
| |
| 2018: Menendez (D)* 54.01%, Hugin (R) 42.83% |
| New Mexico |
| Sen. Martin Heinrich (D)* |
| Nella Domenici (R) |
| |
| 2018: Heinrich (D)* 54.09%, Rich (R) 30.53%, Johnson (Lbt) 15.38% |
| New York |
| Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D)* |
| Mike Sapraicone (R) |
| |
| 2018: Gillibrand (D)* 67.00%, Farley (R) 33.00% |
| North Dakota |
| Sen. Kevin Cramer (R)* |
| Katrina Christiansen (D) |
| |
| 2018: Cramer (R) 55.11%, Heitkamp (D)* 44.27% |
| Ohio |
| Sen. Sherrod Brown (D)* |
| Bernie Moreno (R) |
| |
| 2018: Brown (D)* 53.41%, Renacci (R) 46.57% |
| Pennsylvania |
| Sen. Bob Casey (D)* |
| David McCormick (R) |
| |
| 2018: Casey (D)* 55.74%, Barletta (R) 42.62% |
| Rhode Island |
| Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D)* |
| GOP Primary September 10 |
| |
| 2018: Whitehouse (D)* 61.44%, Flanders (R) 38.33% |
| Tennessee |
| Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R)* |
| Gloria Johnson (D) |
| |
| 2018: Blackburn (R) 54.71%, Bredesen (D) 43.92% |
| Texas |
| Sen. Ted Cruz (R)* |
| Colin Allred (D) |
| |
| 2018: Cruz (R)* 50.89%, O’Rourke (D) 48.33% |
| Utah |
| Sen. Mitt Romney (R)* – Retiring |
| John Curtis (R) |
| Caroline Gleich (D) |
| |
| 2018: Romney (R) 62.59%, Wilson (D) 30.91% |
| Vermont |
| Sen. Bernie Sanders (I)* |
| Gerald Malloy (R) |
| |
| 2018: Sanders (I)* 67.44%, Zupan (R) 27.47% |
| Virginia |
| Sen. Tim Kaine (D)* |
| Hung Cao (R) |
| |
| 2018: Kaine (D)* 57.00%, Stewart (R) 41.01% |
| Washington |
| Sen. Maria Cantwell (D)* |
| Raul Garcia (R) |
| |
| 2018: Cantwell (D)* 58.31%, Hutchinson (R) 41.48% |
| West Virginia |
| Sen. Joe Manchin (I)* – Retiring |
| Jim Justice (R) |
| Glenn Elliott (D) |
 |
| 2018: Manchin (D)* 49.57%, Morrisey (R) 46.26% |
| Wisconsin |
| Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D)* |
| Eric Hovde (R) |
| |
| 2018: Baldwin (D)* 55.36%, Vukmir (R) 44.53% |
| Wyoming |
| Sen. John Barrasso (R)* |
| Scott Morrow (D) |
| |
| 2018: Barrasso (R)* 66.96%, Trauner (D) 30.10% |