Voters head to the polls on Wednesday 29 May for the 2024 South African election.
This is a momentous election in that for the first time since universal suffrage and full democracy came to South Africa in 1994, the governing party may lose its overall majority in Parliament.
The African National Congress, the party of Nelson Mandela which rose to power with him in that 1994 free election, has seen its popularity erode in recent years. This has not stopped them from winning each election every five years in a landslide, but the first cracks started to appear in 2019. This poll in 2024 could end 30 years of uninterrupted one-party rule in South Africa.
2024 South African Election: How It Works
South Africa elects its 400 members of the National Assembly by proportional representation. It is also in essence a presidential election, though indirect, as the leader of the party with the most votes is the leader of the party with the most seats, and the National Assembly elects the president. 201 seats is required to claim an overall majority.
At the provincial level, concurrent elections are also held to elect their legislatures. The smallest provincial legislatures are in Free State, Mpumalanga, and Northern Cape, which have 30 members, while the largest is KwaZulu-Natal with 80.
2019: The Prior South African Election
President Cyril Ramaphosa led his African National Congress (ANC) to another election victory, though with a reduced majority. The ANC won 57.5 percent of the national vote, which equated to 230 seats in the National Assembly. In second place was the Democratic Alliance (DA) with 20.77 percent, or 84 seats. Rising higher was Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters party (EFF), with 10.8 percent, or 44 seats. Those were by far the three largest parties.
The ANC lost 19 seats, while the DA also lost five. EFF was the big gainer, picking up 19 seats. The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and Freedom Front Plus (FF+) also saw increases of four and six seats, respectively.
There were no major changes at the provincial level. The ANC retained its majorities in Eastern Cape, Free State, Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo, Mpumalanga, Northern Cape, and North West. Meanwhile, the DA held on to their majority in Western Cape. Of the provincial results, Gauteng was the most interesting, as the ANC lost three seats to fall to 37 – the minimum number of seats required for a majority – on 50.2 percent of the vote.
2024 South African Election: What’s Different This Time
The first big change is that the fragmentation and sagging popularity seem to have finally caught up to the ANC, at least to the point where it matters. Opinion polls show that the ANC may only land a vote total in the low 40s, sending South Africa into its first hung parliament situation since free elections.
There are also now alliances with which to contend. The ruling ANC and the EFF worked together on the local level, prompting several opposition parties to get to together and launch the Multi-Party Charter. Originally involving the DA, IFP, FF+, and ActionSA, this alliance pledges to work together to stop an ANC minority government which may enlist the help of EFF. Several other minor parties have joined since its creation in 2023, making this the closest thing to a unified opposition seen in South Africa in some time.
What Could Happen This Time?
It is generally assumed that the ANC is in serious danger of losing their overall majority in the National Assembly. Further, the Gauteng provincial legislature could also see the ANC lose its majority. The DA had hoped for both outcomes in 2019, but that election was never in doubt. This one has much more than any before it.
However, it is not all good news for the Multi-Party Charter: uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) and EFF are forecasted to do well enough to win significant seats, and may well work with the ANC in coalition. It is quite likely that all three of those parties put together will net a majority when all the votes are counted. Even reducing the ANC to the position of needing coalition partners to govern would be new territory for South Africa.
2024 South African Election: Major Party Leaders
- ACDP: Kenneth Meshoe
- ActionSA: Herman Mashaba
- ANC: Cyril Ramaphosa
- DA: John Steenhuisen
- EFF: Julius Malema
- FF+: Pieter Groenewald
- IFP: Velenkosini Hlabisa
- MK: Jacob Zuma
About Jacob Zuma
Zuma, the former president and former member of the ANC, is the leader of uMkhonto we Sizwe. It was determined by a court on 21 May that Zuma himself cannot stand for Parliament in this election, but he remains the party’s leader.
