The results of the 2024 Indian election are in, and while the expected party won, how they got there has been a cause for surprise.
Hundreds of millions of Indians took to the polls over the past six weeks to render their verdict on the 10-year government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). It was widely expected before the election that Modi and the BJP were on track for another victory, perhaps wider than ever.
Prime Minister Modi campaigned this time on the idea of expanding his majority to levels rarely seen, with an unofficial campaign mantra of “400 paar,” which is to say 400 seats. The Lok Sabha, India’s lower house, has 543 seats, so winning 400 of them makes for a truly massive majority. Opinion polls suggested a big victory for the BJP and its allies which might have supported that outcome, but the sole question was how big.
The Prior Indian Election: 2019
In the 2019 general election, the BJP and its allies (called the NDA) won 353 seats, but the BJP by itself won 303, which was far more than the 272 needed to govern. In fact, they accounted for almost a two-thirds majority in the Lok Sabha, exceeding opinion polling’s expectations.
The main opposition party, the Indian National Congress (INC) won just 52 seats, and its progressive alliance won 91. Minor and other unaligned parties accounted for the roughly 100 remaining seats.
2024 Indian Election: What Happened?
The current trends, based on projections pulled from NDTV and Firstpost, has the BJP and their coalition partners (NDA) on 294 seats. The Indian National Congress and its allies (INDIA) will win 231 seats. Others will round out the 543-seat legislature with 18.
For the NDA, this is a net loss of almost 60 seats from last time. INDIA will gain over 100, while minor and unaligned parties have seen heavy losses.
Not only did “400 paar” not happen, but the BJP and partners saw its majority in the Lok Sabha sharply reduced. The BJP lost enough seats that they will not be able to govern alone, and India will have a sizable, credible opposition. Final results are yet to be determined, but the BJP is on track for 240 seats by itself, leaving it 33 seats short. Congress is heading for a final outcome of about 99, which would be a gain of 47.
Modi himself saw a large swing against him in his own seat of Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh. His vote share dropped by over nine points while Congress rose by 26, though he was still re-elected with a comfortable majority of 54 to 41 percent.
2024 Indian Election: Aftermath
This was a huge democratic exercise, with well over 600 million voters expected to have turned out for the 2024 election, though turnout was down from last time. With that said, unquestionably, there was a shift away from the NDA that was either missed or misinterpreted by Indian opinion polling. For example, a News18 “Mega Poll” had the NDA predicted at 411 seats back in the middle of March, while in April, a poll by ABP-CVoter projected that the NDA would approach 47 percent of the total vote, but imputed a victory with about 373 seats for Modi’s alliance. Not to single those news sources or pollsters out, but generally speaking, there was not much in terms of public opinion or mainstream commentary which would have given an indication that this result was coming.
There were also allegations of impropriety leveled against the governing party during the campaign. Congress accused Modi’s government of freezing their bank accounts back in March and said that it was politically-motivated, a charge which the government denied. Amongst other things, voter and candidate suppression were other allegations being made by the opposition, which again were downplayed by the government. It was a rocky road to get to this election counting day.
Nevertheless, the BJP and its alliance won the election. Modi can claim the third term he wanted, but not the huge mandate that was expected. The prime minister hailed his election victory and said all of the things one would expect him to say in so doing, but even though he won, there is going to be a feeling of disappointment among the NDA supporters who were hoping for a generational majority, and instead lost 60 seats.
The State of Indian Democracy
For all of the domestic and international media commentary about India sliding towards one-party rule, this result should calm those fears somewhat, though not nearly as much as if Modi had lost. The BJP did not get the historically-massive majority they sought, and in fact went backwards. Based on the trends, the opposition will have about 46 percent of the seats in the Lok Sabha, which points to an appearance of democratic health, though some would have hoped for more.
There are many complex issues facing India’s government, with the economy and employment being near the top of almost everyone’s list. While the NDA can revel in their third-consecutive victory, these results are a sign that not everyone is happy with the course India has charted. Gaining or losing a few seats here or there is a statistical blip, but dropping 60 seats is a signal that something did not resonate with a large chunk of the public. Another potential factor is that pollsters said the NDA had it in the bag, so perhaps some voters sat out, though if or how many, we may never know.
Where India goes from here is a matter for debate, and what the NDA does with this third majority remains to be seen. One thing, however, is clear: the majority party over-promised and under-delivered on their election results, and they will face a much larger opposition in parliament than they expected.
