What are the 2024 Lib Dem target seats in the 4 July British general election, you ask?
In 2019, the snap election held over the holiday season, times were tough for the Liberal Democrats. Despite gaining some defectors in the House of Commons thanks to Brexit policy and other realignments, the party suffered a bitter defeat at the ballot box. The Lib Dems fell to just 11 seats, and even lost their leader, Jo Swinson, in the process.
If opinion polls are to be believed, however, the Lib Dem renaissance may be directly tied to the impending demise of the Conservative government. Surveys and seat projections suggest the Lib Dems may be in line to win 40, 50, or even more than 60 seats, depending on whom you ask. Since the Lib Dems were born in time for the 1992 election, the most seats they have ever won was 62 (2005). Short of a massive miss by opinion polling, the Lib Dems are in line for their best result since at least 2010, in which they won 57.
As for what specific seats will be at the top of the target list, read on, if you please. Earlier in the election campaign, we also looked at the Labour target seats.
Top 68: 2024 Lib Dem Target Seats
The above are the 68 seats in which the Liberal Democrats are most likely to gain, based on the 2019 general election results after having undergone boundary changes in 2023. Those redraws yielded some interesting shifts; for example, Westmorland & Lonsdale is held by former Lib Dem leader Tim Farron, but it was redrawn into a notionally-Tory seat. Based on the size of the majority that the Tory candidate would have won here in 2019, over 5,000, it is 15th on the Lib Dem target list.
First on the list of 2024 Lib Dem target seats is Carshalton & Wallington, a seat in the southern reaches of Greater London. Conservative Elliot Colburn was its most recent winner, taking the seat from the Lib Dems with a majority of just 629 votes. This seems like a prime target for a Lib Dem gain, possibly with a majority in the thousands.
The vast majority of seats on the target list are held by Conservatives – it makes sense, as they have the most seats. However, the second seat on the list, as well as three of the top ten overall, are notional SNP seats. Fife North East (or North East Fife, as other places have shown it) is in the same boat as Westmorland & Lonsdale: A Lib Dem holds it, but boundary changes flipped it. Wendy Chamberlain (LD) won in 2019 with a majority of 1,316, but after boundary changes, it is an SNP seat by 728 votes. Given the SNP’s fall in the opinion polls and the slight Lib Dem resurgence, it is not likely the SNP will actually win this seat in July.
Other 2024 Lib Dem Target Seats
Dropping down to number seven on the list, we see Mid Dunbartonshire in Scotland, which is a new seat. Most of this constituency came from Jo Swinson’s old seat for the Lib Dems. Amy Callaghan (SNP) defeated Swinson by just 149 votes in a dramatic upset. The seat now has a notional SNP majority of nearly 2,000 votes, but it would take just under a two-percent swing from SNP to Lib Dem to put an end to that.
Esher & Walton at number 11 is interesting in that this was held by the former deputy prime minister, Dominic Raab (Con). He won a relatively slim majority of 2,743 votes at the last election, though after boundary changes, it increased slightly to about 3,000. Now that Raab is stepping aside, this presents as a serious opportunity for the Lib Dems.
Swings to Lib Dem
A uniform swing of five points from the opponent to Lib Dem would get them down to about number 16 on their target list, which is St. Ives.
It is a much bigger haul, but in the event they are able to register some 10-point swings away from the Tories and others, that could land them all the way down to number 30 on the list, which is the new constituency of Godalming & Ash.
In the most recent by-election which was won by the Lib Dems, Somerton & Frome in July 2023, Sarah Dyke cashed in a swing from CON to LD of an astonishing 29 percent. Though very unlikely, a swing like that would net them a large, comfortable majority. However, the Lib Dems will no doubt be happy with some healthy swings and a few dozen seats gained.
