For those who have never experienced a British election night, now is your chance with the 4 July election fast approaching.
Those who have experienced them know what’s coming, and it’s worth the up-all-night party which may ensue (well, depending on which party you want to win). Your friends and/or passing internet acquaintances at Election Yard are here to tell you what to expect from a thrilling, dramatic evening of British politics.
British Election Night: The Explainer Video
In this video, we cover several elements of the British election night to follow, which include:
- How we arrived upon this summer election
- What will happen on polling day (4 July) during voting hours
- The release of the exit poll
- When you can expect results to come in, including the most likely time frame for a rush of declarations
- What will happen the day after the election – there might very well be a new prime minister on 5 July
Other Notes on Election 2024
We are updating election predictions periodically, calling our guesses for all 650 constituencies in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. As of now, we think this election night will be especially kind to Labour, who are on track to exceed 400 seats in the House of Commons. If this result plays out, it would be their best result since 2001.
Will There Be a “Portillo Moment?”
With election predictions like these – and dare I say, ours are a little more conservative towards Labour’s gains than other websites – some major Tory players will be at risk. During the 1997 Labour landslide, some cabinet ministers were swept out of office, including Michael Portillo, who was seen as a possible future Tory leader. Of course, he was expected to survive Tony Blair’s Labour rout. The utter shock which rung out when he lost Enfield Southgate in 1997 was known as the “Portillo moment.”
Will there be one in 2024? If there is, it’s likely to be later in the evening (or the morning, depending on how you look at it). One would think such a race will be close, so it’s not happening at midnight. Some have even suggested the prime minister himself might have one of these occurrences, though we feel it is unlikely.
