The 2024 French election is a poll that was never expected to happen, and President Emmanuel Macron is betting big that the far-right will be stopped.
Political turmoil in France reached has reached an inflection point. With right-wing populism on the rise, this snap election will tell Europe and the world a great deal about the direction of the West, and one of the European Union’s greatest powers.
Dates of the 2024 French Election
The first round of the legislative election will take place on Sunday, 30 June. The second round, a runoff between the top two (or three) candidates in each seat, will take place a week later on Sunday, 7 July. Anyone who receives a majority of the vote in the first round does not need to face a second round.
2024 French Election: How Did We Get Here?
The foundation for the French poll was laid during the 2024 European Parliament elections, which took place earlier in June. President Macron’s party, Renaissance, and its European Parliamentary group, Renew, had a poor result. This mostly-centrist bloc lost ten seats in France, almost half of its prior total of 23. The far-right opposition National Rally had a big night, winning 30 seats overall, a gain of seven.
This defeat was seen as a significant embarrassment for Macron, who decided on the day of the results to call a snap legislative election. His stated intent, in our words, was to try to head off the threat the National Rally and Marine Le Pen pose, though many questioned the timing and rationale. An election for the French National Assembly was not due until 2027.
Prior State of the Parties: 2022 Election
When Emmanuel Macron was swept into office in 2017, his party, at that point called La République En Marche!, went from zero seats to a commanding majority in the lower house. LREM and its allies won 350 out of 577 seats, largely wiping away the major parties which had dominated French politics for decades.
In 2022, however, Macron’s re-election margin shrunk, and his alliance lost its legislative majority. They dropped by about 100 seats to 245, falling well short of the 289 seats needed to rule alone. While LREM remained the largest party, the National Rally was one of the big gainers, jumping from eight seats in 2017 to 89 in 2022. The left-wing bloc had the second-most seats with 131, while the center-right Les Républicains dropped into fourth place.
Why The Decline for Macron’s Party?
Depending on which French polling firm you ask, Macron’s disapproval rating among the public is somewhere between 60 and 70 percent. His approval ratings are generally under 30 percent. So, why the huge decline from a landslide win in 2017 to where he stands today?
His presidency began with a great deal of promise, but controversies and unpopular stances have eroded his standing with the French public. Some see the president as being out of touch and making the wrong moves on immigration and social policy. Macron has been the target of protests during his tenure, including the years-long “Yellow Vest Protests” against high fuel prices. Those are just a few of the issues which have come up during his presidency, and both he and his party have suffered for various reasons. Another controversial measure to come out of his government was the 2023 law which raised the retirement age in France by two years to 64. This legislation prompted strikes and protests.
The 2024 European Parliament elections were the biggest blow that Renaissance has suffered since he took office in 2017.
What Might Happen in 2024?
First, let’s mention what has happened: Given the rise of the far-right, several parties of the left banded together. The New Popular Front (NFP) is an alliance of multiple center-left to left-wing parties which will run as collaborators in the legislative election. Their goal is simple: pool resources and votes, and hope they finish ahead of National Rally.
Can they accomplish that? Opinion polls suggest it is not impossible, but the NFP is running five to ten points behind RN. Macron’s bloc, called Ensemble in this election, places third in most opinion polling.
Three-candidate races in the second round are possible, because France’s electoral system permits it if the third-place candidate has received at least 12.5 percent of the total number of enrolled voters. These would probably help RN, as in a two-candidate race, the anti-RN vote may consolidate; in a three-candidate race, however, the votes may split and allow RN to come up the middle in various constituencies. The second round is first-past-the-post regardless of how many candidates are running.
However, do not assume that Ensemble will fall in line if they are eliminated in the first round. Macron has bashed both left and right, even saying that a “civil war” may foment if a bloc wins to either extreme of his.
A victory by the National Rally would cause a great deal of concern for those invested in liberal democracy. It would continue a trend of illiberalism which has surfaced elsewhere in Europe, such as Russia, Hungary, and to some degree in Germany with the rise of the AfD. RN has not said it will weaken democratic institutions, but others in France are not so sure, and will tell you democracy itself is at stake.
Key Issues in the 2024 French Election
The National Rally manifesto is not far off from what one might expect from a Donald Trump campaign platform in America. Immigration is a major issue in this election, and RN has said they want to slash it. Additionally, cost of living has been a big point of contention in French politics for years – ask Macron – and RN are pledging tax cuts. On the issue of Ukraine, the party is walking a fine line: RN leader Jordan Bardella called Russia a “multi-dimensional threat” and pledged support for Ukraine in general, but they have ruled out larger engagement in the conflict, and the party has been accused of ties to Russian interests in the past.
NFP, the left bloc, has called for a “total break” with Macronism – it is no surprise that the president has no great love for them. They are also focusing on immigration, one of the main issues of the day, but proposing a more liberal approach than Macron’s current policies towards work authorization, reducing detention times, and asylum-seekers. The bloc has also proposed policies which include tax rises for the wealthy, more spending on the climate, and continued commitment to Ukraine.
Macron’s alliance seeks to protect the initiatives it has offered since assuming power, but have also made pledges in their manifesto for ecology, industrialization, and a more rigid stance on immigration than the NFP – but perhaps not as rigid as what the RN would do.
Other Notes on the 2024 French Election
Originally called National Front, National Rally has been on a slow and steady rise in French politics over the last few decades. In 2002, Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, surprised many by finishing second in the presidential election, though eventually losing the second round in a landslide to Jacques Chirac. Marine Le Pen made it to the second round in both 2017 and 2022, increasing her vote share to new highs for the party. In 2022, she took over 41 percent against Macron. This election is the first time that RN, including its predecessor party, is positioned to win at the national level.
Emmanuel Macron will be term-limited out in 2027, but may face an opposition legislature for the remainder of his term.
