In all elections, there are winners and losers. When it comes to the 2024 presidential election, many want to know if Joe Biden or Donald Trump is winning. Few questions in American electoral politics are bigger at the moment.
Opinion polls suggest that Trump is ahead, albeit in a competitive race. The truth, however, is that it’s not so much that Donald Trump is winning the election, it’s that Joe Biden is losing it.
That’s right: It’s time for an opinion piece that is sure to upset everyone. On the one hand, there will be Trump supporters who feel he is winning because he’s great, while on the other, Biden supporters will contend that their man cannot and should not lose to Trump for various reasons. However, there is years of evidence to suggest that our assertion is correct.
Poll Numbers Paint Picture of Discontent
This should not be a controversial statement, but it may be construed as one: Neither Donald Trump nor Joe Biden is popular. The evidence for that is clear in opinion polling.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregation, as of July 15, 2024, Donald Trump had an unfavorable rating of 53.7 percent, and favorability of 41.7 percent. The trendlines have not improved a great deal during his post-presidency, either. Those averages have stayed consistently between 50 and 60 percent disapproval since he left office. There have been some small waves in the average, but he is in the same spot as he was, for example, in June 2021.
In their aggregation of Joe Biden’s popularity, they put the incumbent president at 56.6 percent unfavorable and 38.8 percent favorable. Since his panned first debate performance in June, those numbers have not changed by any appreciable degree – dipping somewhat, but not tanking.
You can squabble over things like “Trump’s 42-percent popular and Biden is 39-percent popular, therefore Trump is more popular.” Technically, that may be accurate, assuming opinion polling is correct. However, neither is what should be considered “popular.” Most voters seem to dislike both of them. It is true that Biden’s numbers have declined over the past several years, but Trump’s disapproval ratings are about the same, so it would not be true to say Trump is more popular than he used to be. There is no evidence to support that. His numbers settled back in after January 6th, and there is no sign yet of any sympathetic movement following the July 2024 assassination attempt. His support may or may not constitute a majority of voters, and probably does not, but it is very static.
Vice-Presidential Candidates
On the question of Vice President Kamala Harris, the approval rating numbers are a little less bad than Biden’s, and about as bad as Trump’s. She has a 39 percent approval rating and about 49-and-a-half percent disapproval, according to the FiveThirtyEight aggregation.
Not included in the above is Sen. JD Vance, the Republican nominee for vice president. As he has little national profile, polls would be worthless at this stage.
What Has and Hasn’t Changed Since 2020
In 2020, Donald Trump was unpopular, while Joe Biden lacked the baggage Trump had accumulated, and won because he was not Trump. However, in 2024, Biden has his own presidential headaches and is no more popular than Trump is. This negates an advantage he had in 2020 over the 45th president.
It looks a lot like how things were in 2016, when both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump were considered widely unpopular amongst the electorate. That election showed us that in a race in which both candidates were unpopular, Trump would be tipped to win as he has the more fervent supporters.
Donald Trump is not more popular than he was in 2016 or 2020. He may not be less popular, but he is not more popular. The numbers have been relatively consistent during his post-presidency, even as Joe Biden’s numbers have fallen.
Is Donald Trump Winning, or Joe Biden Losing?
First, one would have to conclude that Biden is losing the election at all. The election is not today, so asking “if the election were held today, what would happen” is meaningless. However, the perception exists on both sides that Biden has fallen behind. Trump’s leads in key states are not large, but in enough polls, they exist.
As we discussed in a past video, this election likely comes down to 93 electoral votes in eight states. Trump or Biden would need to win most of them to win the presidency. At this point, barring the unforeseen, neither candidate is favored to flip a state they have not already won at some point (Biden in 2020, Trump in 2016 or 2020). In other words, neither Trump or Biden is set to expand their electoral map beyond past successes. Pro and anti-Trump sentiment is baked-in for the most part.
While Biden’s campaign has faced its challenges, including the press relentlessly pursuing the issue of Biden’s age, Trump’s popularity has not increased. Most voters are willing to support one or the other despite the fact that many seem dissatisfied with the choices.
What politician in the United States of America is truly beloved in 2024? Who out there transcends party lines and has both the respect and admiration of the public? Nobody running for president or vice-president, that’s for sure.
