The Empire State has several endangered House incumbents, and the 2024 New York-17 race features one of them clinging to his seat.
Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) was elected in the 2022 midterm elections after upsetting the then-Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) chair Sean Patrick Maloney. Since then, New York redrew its congressional districts again after some complained that the process used to draw those lines was mishandled and unclear.
The resulting new 17th District, however, is not very different from the one to which Lawler was elected in 2022. Aside from minor boundary changes in Southern Dutchess County, it is otherwise the same district. Other endangered GOP incumbents elsewhere in New York were not as fortunate, and some seats, like the upstate 22nd District, are at high danger of flipping.
2024 New York-17 House Race Preview
Lawler is running for a second term. His main opponent is Democrat Mondaire Jones, a Rockland County native who represented the 17th District following the 2020 election. Following redistricting, Jones and Maloney were drawn into the same district for the 2022 cycle, and rather than run against the DCCC chair, Jones ran in the Brooklyn and Manhattan-based 10th District and lost the primary.
How Might This Go?: 2024 New York-17
Lawler is in trouble, and all things being equal, he would struggle to win re-election while the Democrats have a realistic chance of carrying the district at the presidential level. However, Lawler has the benefit of incumbency, and too much is unknown at this point (as of mid-July 2024) in terms of the stability of the Democratic ticket. There are other GOP House incumbents in New York in worse shape than Lawler.
Both Jones and Lawler are from Rockland County, which is the most critical county to the success of either candidate.
Next Up
We will stay in the region for our next 4 Minutes or Less preview to tackle the New Jersey Senate race.
