The Democratic enthusiasm problem in the 2024 election was clear as day, despite President Joe Biden’s frequent protests that he was still up to the job.
Donald Trump and his Republican Party last week wrapped up their convention, one in which the former president was met with glowing praise and adulation. Add the convention to Biden’s sagging poll numbers and any additional goodwill towards Trump following the assassination attempt, and times were gloomy for the Democratic Party.
However, since Biden’s departure from the race, and the entry of Kamala Harris to the race, one thing is clear: Democratic enthusiasm is back.
How Did We Get Here?
Even the most blue-tinted glasses in Democratic campaign circles would have admitted previously that while Biden may have still had a chance at winning, it was shrinking. His likelihood of winning a second term diminished since June, to the point where some in his own party openly questioned whether or not he could get the job done. We noted in a prior article that while Trump’s popularity had not increased, the main difference between 2020 and 2024 is that Biden’s had decreased. It got to the point where the incumbent president slipped behind in polling in most key states.
Then, in came the Democratic elected officials calling for him to step aside. Some may have had genuine concern for the president, or concern about holding the White House, but many of them probably worried about their own necks the most. Biden tanking in November would have had down-ballot effects that could cost some of these officials their seats.
As we also noted in that prior article on Election Yard, both Trump and Biden had high negative poll ratings. It always seemed like most of the electorate wanted an option who was not either one of them.
On July 21, Biden withdrew from the race in light of consistent intraparty pressure, and immediately endorsed his 2020 running mate, Vice President Kamala Harris.
Why Is Democratic Enthusiasm Back?
The electorate that wanted an option not named Biden or Trump got their wish one Sunday afternoon. Furthermore, despite a number of Democrats still clinging to personal loyalty to Biden, many no doubt breathed a sigh of relief when he left.
One other helpful factor was a point brought up before Biden dropped out: Had he done so with no plan, the chaos could have engulfed the Democratic Party and gifted Trump victory. By instantly endorsing Harris to replace him, many elected Democrats fell in line and offered enthusiastic support, from moderates to progressives alike.
This led to a groundswell of optimism among Democratic supporters, which also had the side effect of wiping last week’s Republican National Convention off the slate. Suddenly, the election was no longer a hopeless cause. Small donors made that reanimated enthusiasm very clear. According to ActBlue, the donation processor of the Democratic Party, Kamala Harris raised over $47 million by 9pm Eastern on Sunday, July 21. Another ActBlue tracker put the number for Sunday at well over $60 million.
Will This Democratic Enthusiasm Hold?
The Democrats would like to hope it does, but reality suggests that there will be some leveling off. After all, Democrats are not going to raise $60 million a day from small donors, nor is any other candidate.
To some extent, it probably will hold: Democratic voters and organizers who might have thought before that Biden was a sinking ship now have hope that Harris will win.
On the issue of Harris’s chances: it is still too soon to say. Opinion polling from prior to her entry is almost worthless. At the point those polls were taken, Joe Biden was dragging down the ticket, she was not on center stage running her own campaign, and gauging a theoretical candidate’s chances in a race in which they are not running can be difficult. Give it about a week or so before we see what the real starting point is for Harris in the polls.
What Comes Next?
The Democratic National Convention begins in four weeks on August 19. These next four weeks or so are critical for the Harris campaign. She does not have to worry much about campaign infrastructure or raising money, since Biden handed off his team and she showed already that she can get the bucks flowing in fast – before hardly saying a word on the campaign trail. Harris and her team needs to plan a big rollout for their new candidacy. It is important that they get off to a fast start to make up for lost time, generate good press, and unify the Democratic Party.
Kamala Harris also has a big decision to make on a running mate, coming in less than four weeks. A strong selection will further steal the media thunder from Trump’s campaign and increase her goodwill going into what is now going to be her Democratic convention.
With all of this said, it is important to note that Donald Trump still has a realistic chance of winning. This is in essence a new race, so it is not clear yet if he is the favorite against Harris or not. However, as the kids might say, the “vibes are immaculate” for Harris and the Democrats out of the gate. They have new life in this campaign, but what they do with it between now and November will be the story.
Simplified Summary – Accessibility
Democrats were gloomy about President Joe Biden’s chances of winning re-election. Many elected Democrats were worried that they would also lose. It also seemed like most Americans wanted someone other than Biden or Donald Trump. When Biden dropped out, Democrats united behind Vice President Kamala Harris. She also raised a lot of money quickly, showing that Democrats were ready and willing to support her. It is too soon to know if she will win, but she has a lot of goodwill. She needs to have a good next few weeks to solidify her candidacy and unite the party.
