There are few Congressional elections this year more critical than the 2024 Ohio Senate race.
Much like Montana, Ohio has a Democratic senator first elected in 2006. Both Sherrod Brown and his Montanan counterpart, Jon Tester, are running for re-election in a presidential year – and in a red state. An additional potential complication is that Brown’s junior senator, JD Vance, is on the other party’s national ticket. (We are aware that Vance’s rollout has been rocky to say the least, but the rules may be a little different for him at home in Ohio.)
We break down the 2024 Ohio Senate race for you in the latest in our YouTube preview series.
2024 Ohio Senate Race Preview Video
The fact that this is a presidential year makes matters uniquely difficult for Sherrod Brown. For his prior re-election race in 2018, that was a good Democratic midterm year. He ran for re-election in 2012 in a presidential year, but Barack Obama carried the state. (Brown got a similar vote share to Obama, though Brown won his race by more.) Not to mention, his 2006 win came in a strong Democratic midterm year. This will be the first time he will contend with a re-election run in the face of his party losing the state up the ballot.
Ohio Senate Candidates
Links to available candidate websites are included. Remember: Only click on links that you trust.
- Sherrod Brown (D)*
- Bernie Moreno (R)
- Tariq Shabazz (I)
- Stephen Faris (I)
- John Hawkins (SWP)
2024 Ohio Senate Race Bottom Line
Sherrod Brown is going to have a fight on his hands, though he is not at all without hope. He is a well-known quantity in Ohio, and has spent almost 50 years in public office. Further, as of early August 2024, he leads in the polls.
If Donald Trump were to win Ohio by eight points like he did in both 2016 and 2020, Brown would need significant ticket-splitting to hang on by the narrowest of margins. Should Trump-Vance win Ohio by more than that, Brown’s re-election odds decrease, as Ohio has abandoned ticket-splitting in recent years.
A win for Democrats here in Ohio would give them hope of squeaking out a 50-50 Senate tie and then retaining their majority with a Kamala Harris victory. However, a loss all but guarantees a GOP majority.
Next Up in 4 Minutes or Less
We will preview the House race in Virginia’s 2nd District.
