Four states are hosting August 6 primaries, and one of them happens to be in a critical state which everyone will be watching in November.
That state is Michigan, one of the famed Blue Wall states on which the presidency could hinge. Three other somewhat less consequential states will also head to the polls: Kansas, Missouri, and Washington. All three are solidly in the political camp of their choice, but there are a handful of interesting races to watch in each.
August 6 Primaries Preview: Kansas
The Sunflower State has no major statewide elections up for a primary this time.
However, all four of the state’s House seats are up for grabs. Of those, the one to watch is the 2nd District, an oddly-shaped eastern Kansas seat which includes Topeka, Kansas City (KCK, of course), and Pittsburg. Incumbent Republican Jake LaTurner is not running for re-election, therefore a crowded race has emerged to succeed him.
On the GOP side, five candidates are in the race. Of them, the most notable name is Derek Schmidt. He was the state’s attorney general and the Republican nominee for governor in 2022, but he lost that race to incumbent Democrat Laura Kelly.
There are two Democratic candidates in the race, and one of them used to hold this seat. That is Nancy Boyda, who won here in the Democratic midterm wave of 2006 but only represented the 2nd for one term.
None of the other three Kansas incumbents – two Republicans and one Democrat – are facing serious intraparty opposition in 2024.
August 6 Primaries Preview: Michigan
Michigan Senate Race
Michiganders will elect a new senator in 2024, as their incumbent, Democrat Debbie Stabenow, is retiring after four terms. The race to succeed her has already been contentious and expensive, but will the primaries be major battles?
At this point, it does not appear so. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers have primary challengers, but both are expected to win. Slotkin faces Hill Harper, but the former is running laps around everyone in terms of fundraising, including Rogers, and boasts a big lead in the primary polls. As for the Republican, Rogers is believed to be well ahead of Sherry O’Donnell and former Rep. Justin Amash.
The race in the 7th to succeed Slotkin is not notable, as both candidates are unopposed in their primaries.
Michigan-08
The 8th District is Rogers’ former seat, and ironically enough, it was also Slotkin’s before redistricting. Now, it belongs to Democrat Dan Kildee, but not for much longer as he is standing down at this election. Three Democrats and three Republicans are running, and this is considered a critical House race for both parties.
On the Democratic side, they drew three notable candidates: Matt Collier, former mayor of Flint, Pamela Pugh, president of the state Board of Education, and Kristen McDonald Rivet, a state senator. The Republican candidates are Paul Junge, the GOP nominee against Kildee in 2020 and 2022, Mary Draves, a scientist, and Anthony Hudson, a trucking company owner who briefly ran an underdog presidential campaign this cycle.
Michigan-10
The 10th District was a Republican win in 2022 behind Rep. John James. This district sits north of Detroit, and if the Democrats end up clawing back the House majority, this could be a surprise result. However, the Democrats still need to choose a candidate here. Carl Marlinga, a former judge who was the 2022 nominee, is running again, as are two other Democrats.
August 6 Primaries Preview: Missouri
Missouri Governor
Incumbent Gov. Mike Parson (R) cannot run for another term by law, and there is a huge crowd of GOP candidates in the running. In total, there are nine Republicans running, including Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft (who has a connected Missouri last name), and Bill Eigel, a state senator. If you are wondering which of those three Donald Trump endorsed, well, it was all of them. The incumbent Parson is backing his lieutenant, Kehoe.
There are also five Democrats in the race. The probable favorite here is Crystal Quade, the Minority Leader of the state’s House of Representatives. She is getting pushed by Mike Hamra, a businessman who has been outraising her in this race.
Missouri Senate Race
The Show-Me State used to be a bellwether, but those days seem to be over. Nevertheless, there is a Senate race here in 2024, and while Republican Sen. Josh Hawley is expected to win, there is a competitive Democratic primary against him. Among the four Democrats running are Lucas Kunce, a veteran who ran for Senate in 2022, and Karla May, a state senator.
Missouri House Races
Seven out of the eight districts in Missouri have competitive primaries. The only one which does not is the Kansas City-based 5th District, in which a Republican, Democrat, and incumbent are all unopposed.
In the St. Louis-based 1st District, progressive Rep. Cori Bush has three challengers in her Democratic primary. One of them is Wesley Bell, a county prosecutor. Her ardent support of an Israeli ceasefire in Gaza has gotten a major pro-Israel PAC into the race to support Bell in the primary. Bush is one of “The Squad,” a small collection of notable left-wing Democratic House members which also includes Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar.
The 3rd District is the only one in Missouri this time with a retiring House member. That is Republican Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer, who is leaving Congress after first being elected in 2008. Seven Republican names will be on the ballot, but one of them, Justin Hicks, pulled out of the race. Polling on this race has been light, but Bob Onder, a former state senator, got Donald Trump’s endorsement. Luetkemeyer gave his blessing to Kurt Schaefer, another former state senator.
August 6 Primaries Preview: Washington
Washington Governor
As a state with a top-two primary, the gubernatorial primary is usually a free-for-all, anyway. Add in the fact that three-term incumbent Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee is stepping aside, and you have one of the crazier ballots you will see in a primary. In total, 28 candidates from five different political affiliations will appear on said ballot.
The leading Democratic candidate is Bob Ferguson, the state’s attorney general. He almost faced two other candidates named Bob Ferguson, who were pushed into the race to hurt the attorney general’s chances, but they are no longer running. On the Republican side, ex-Rep. Dave Reichert looks like he will lead the way.
The top-two vote getters will advance to the November general election. If it should be anyone other than Ferguson or Reichert, then a major surprise has happened.
Washington Senate Race
Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) is running for a fifth term in the Senate, and she will have to swat away 10 other primary challengers. One of the GOP candidates is “Goodspaceguy,” who has run in numerous prior elections. None of the five Republicans running have held prior office – Cantwell is not believed to be in danger, and the better GOP candidates in Washington aimed for the governorship and the US House.
Washington House Races
Almost every primary out of Washington’s US House races is crowded. Two districts stand out, as they will be electing new members: the 5th and 6th. They could not be more different politically.
The 5th District is based in Eastern Washington and centers on Spokane. It is held by Republican Cathy McMorris Rodgers, who is not running for re-election. The GOP drew six candidates here, including state representative Jacquelin Maycumber and Spokane city government officials Michael Baumgartner and Jonathan Bingle. On the Democratic side, there are fewer candidates, but one is Carmela Conroy, the erstwhile chair of the Spokane County Democratic Party.
As for the 6th District, it is mostly made up of the Olympic Peninsula, but also includes Bremerton and parts of the Tacoma area. Whereas the 5th is a redder than average district, the 6th is equally as blue. Joe Biden won this seat by 18 points in 2020, so it stands to reason that a Democrat will win here, but which one? There are two in the race: Hilary Franz, the state land commissioner, and Emily Randall, a state senator. Former Rep. Norm Dicks and current Rep. Derek Kilmer have endorsed Franz, but Sen. Patty Murray is backing Randall.
