The 2024 Northern Territory election is on 24 August, and a change in government might be on the agenda for Territory voters.
Labor has been in power in the Northern Territory for the past eight years. In that time period, there have been three different chief ministers: Michael Gunner, Natasha Fyles, and the incumbent Eva Lawler. However, if opinion polls are correct, the 14th Chief Minister of the Territory could come from the opposition Country Liberal Party.
Since this is Election Yard’s first Australian election, even though it is not an especially huge one, we are celebrating by looking at the overall campaign and then offering a basic prediction.
2024 Northern Territory Election: Party Leaders
Links are to party websites. Only click on links that you trust.
| Eva Lawler | Territory Labor (ALP) |
| Lia Finocchiaro | Country Liberal Party (CLP) |
| No leader | NT Greens (Grn) |
Results of the Previous Northern Territory Election
What They’re Saying in the Campaign
The Covid crisis hit prior to the end of Labor’s first term in office. While the ALP government in Western Australia turned Covid policy into an earth-shattering landslide win in 2021, the Territory’s Labor Party, who won a landslide in 2016, had almost nowhere to go but down in 2020. Labor previously held 18 of 25 seats, and were reduced to 14. The Country Liberals recovered from two seats in 2016 to a more respectable eight. A new party, the Territory Alliance, also won a seat.
Michael Gunner left as chief minister in 2022, replaced by Natasha Fyles. Her year and a half in the top job ended after she was accused of conflicts of interest due to holding undisclosed shares in an energy company – and then in a mining company. Eva Lawler became the new leader thereafter, putting her in the position of having to fight an election with less than a year on the job, following a significant scandal.
This was not all, however. In 2023, during Fyles’ tenure, a crime wave in Alice Springs made international news, and there was further unrest earlier in 2024. Crime remains a top issue in the campaign for both major parties. Nevertheless, and needless to say, it has been a rocky last few years for the Labor government.
Opinion polling has been light, but the most recent survey from earlier this year suggested that the CLP would win the election. Please take caution that this poll is almost three months old, and it was funded by a special interest group. However, at the same time, this is a Labor government trying to win a third term in the face of some high-profile difficulties over the past four years.
2024 Northern Territory Election Prediction
The following is our best guess at how the election will go in terms of seat ranges:
- Our prediction is that the Country Liberal Party will take between 11-16 seats.
- We think Labor will win between 7-11 seats.
- We think others, including independents and Greens, will net between 0-4 seats. Specifically, we give the Greens a tight range of 0-1 seats.
13 seats are required for a majority.
Looking Further
It is not necessarily a certainty that the CLP will win a majority, and there is a non-zero chance that they will tie Labor. A few independents may be re-elected, and the Greens have a chance of winning in Fannie Bay (10.9), which would scoop a so-called safe seat out of Labor’s column.
On a very good night, the CLP could pick off the chief minister herself in Drysdale, which is considered a borderline marginal seat (5.4). They might also win back Daly (6.1), won at a by-election by Dheran Young, who is now the Assembly’s speaker.
The CLP will have some of their own very close marginals to defend: Barkly (0.1), Namatjira (0.3), and Braitling (1.3). If you are wondering how close a 0.1 seat is in the Northern Territory, Steve Edgington of the CLP won Barkly by five votes last time. Should the CLP lose any of these seats, which is far from impossible, the chances of a minority government greatly increase.
With that said, Labor getting re-elected to a third-straight majority government seems unlikely. There is limited polling evidence to back up claims of a CLP win, but without question, this past term for Labor has been difficult. Northern Territory governments winning a third term has happened, and if you’re the Country Liberals, you have seen your party win eight elections in a row. Labor also won three in a row in the 2000s. One-term governments like the CLP’s from 2012 to 2016 is very much the exception. Some voters may still vote with that unpopular government in mind, but without question, the CLP is in their best position to win an election since 2012.
