The 2024 Wisconsin presidential race preview features yet another “Blue Wall” state with a stack of critical electoral votes.
In two other presidential preview videos, we took you to Rust Belt states which would help decide the election: Pennsylvania and Michigan. Add these three states together and you have a path to the White House; it is no coincidence that these are the three we highlighted first.
Back in 2016, the Democrats had been on a long winning streak in Wisconsin, carrying the state every year since 1988. Hillary Clinton was accused of complacency, especially after the election. Why? Because she lost the state to Donald Trump. Joe Biden and the Democrats won it back in 2020, but it remains a key battleground state to this day.
2024 Wisconsin Presidential Race in 4 Minutes or Less
In our latest YouTube feature, we go into the critical counties in Wisconsin where either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump need to make their stand. We also look at how Joe Biden was able to chart his course to victory in 2020, narrow though it was.
Just How Important Is Wisconsin?
Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes. That may not sound like a lot, given that Arizona has 11 and Georgia and North Carolina each have 16, but together with the rest of the Midwestern “Blue Wall,” this state could be the ballgame in several electoral scenarios.
In fact, in our electoral math video from a few months ago, we mapped those out and determined Wisconsin’s necessity to both campaigns. Assuming, as in our initial US presidential prediction, that Kamala Harris starts at 226 electoral votes, she wins the election with Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Those get her to exactly 270.
However, if she loses Wisconsin, she could supplant it with Arizona, Georgia, or North Carolina, but the level of difficulty increases a bit with each state. Donald Trump winning any of the “Blue Wall” states back would be damaging to Harris but not necessarily campaign-ending. These three states, including Wisconsin, are her easiest path but not necessarily her only one.
As for Trump, he does not have a path to the presidency without winning at least one of these three states. For the sake of argument, we are assuming Trump will not flip Nebraska’s 2nd District, polling of which has showed Harris ahead, and Biden won it by about six or seven points.
2024 Wisconsin Presidential Race: Sources Cited
For 2016 election results, we cited CNN’s election page. As for 2020 election results, our source was the Wisconsin Secretary of State.
Various county clerk offices we referenced in the video are:
- Dane County Clerk
- Kenosha County Clerk
- Milwaukee County Clerk
- Ozaukee County Clerk
- Racine County Clerk
- Washington County Clerk
- Waukesha County Clerk
We also made reference to US Census Bureau statistics on Milwaukee County.
Next Up
We turn our attention back to the Senate, and one of only two Democratic “reach goals” in the chamber: the Florida Senate race.
