How are the 2024 House toss-up races going, you ask?
Election Yard’s first wave of 2024 election predictions dropped on September 1, and in these initial picks, we rated 19 House seats as “toss-ups.” As neither party is at 218 seats on their own as of now, those 19 will decide who forms the majority in January 2025.
We take a look at all 19 and why we had them rated as toss-ups.
2024 House Toss-Up Races
The following is the list of seats we have rated as “toss-ups” as of September 22, 2024:
- Arizona 1st District
- Arizona 6th District
- California 13th District
- California 22nd District
- California 27th District
- California 41st District
- Colorado 8th District
- Michigan 7th District
- Michigan 8th District
- Nebraska 2nd District
- New Jersey 7th District
- New York 4th District
- New York 17th District
- New York 19th District
- North Carolina 1st District
- Oregon 5th District
- Pennsylvania 7th District
- Pennsylvania 8th District
- Washington 3rd District
12 of the above toss-up seats are held by Republicans, and seven are held by Democrats. Find the full breakdown of predictions at our US House page.
2024 House Toss-Up Races: Why We Did It
AZ-01 (R) & AZ-06 (R): Arizona is a state getting slightly bluer overall, and may go Democratic for president again. Both of these races were razor-close in 2022 despite the GOP retaking the House. Per Daily Kos analysis, Joe Biden would have won both districts, although narrowly, in 2020. GOP incumbents David Schweikert (1st) and Juan Ciscomani (6th) may or may not outrun Trump down-ballot, but it’s too early to stick our necks out for either.
CA-13 (R), CA-22 (R), CA-27 (R), & CA-41 (R): Joe Biden would have won – by a wide margin – all except the 41st District on this list. These are four endangered GOP incumbents who all won close races in 2022. Kamala Harris at the top of the ballot is the first Californian ever to lead the Democratic ticket. She is going to win her home state by a lot, and while some of these incumbents have personal brands in their districts, John Duarte (13th), David Valadao (22nd), Mike Garcia (27th), and Ken Calvert (41st) are all on notice. A big enough Democratic wave in California could wipe out all four of them.
CO-08 (D): Yadira Caraveo was a bit of a surprise win for Democrats in 2022, as most outfits had this race as “Lean R.” Colorado is going blue as a whole, which will probably help Caraveo, but this district is too politically divided to count this in either column yet.
MI-07 (D) & MI-08 (D): Both of these Michigan seats are open for different reasons. Elissa Slotkin (7th) is running for Senate, while Dan Kildee (8th) is retiring. Michigan is a presidential battleground extraordinaire. The Cook Political Report would say that the political composition of each district tilts very slightly Republican, but the Democrats recruited credible candidates in both. Too soon to put our proverbial nickel down on either.
NE-02 (R): This seat is somewhat of a white whale for Democrats – they are always close but rarely win it. At the presidential level, it’s more likely blue than not, but will Democrats dislodge Don Bacon? This race looks close enough that a toss-up is the right call for now. It has the makings of a 2-point race in either direction.
NJ-07 (R): Tom Kean has a tough task in 2024. Like so many GOP incumbents on this list, he will have to win re-election while Kamala Harris most likely carries the district. He got just 51.4 percent of the vote in flipping the seat in 2022, but how far will the Kean family name take his House career?
NY-04 (R), NY-17 (R), & NY-19 (R): New York redrew their maps for 2024 to help wipe out some GOP gains in the state in 2022. Anthony D’Esposito (4th), Mike Lawler (17th), and Marc Molinaro (19th) all picked up seats last time, and all could be on their way back out of Congress. While Kamala Harris wins this state and probably these district levels, they will have uphill battles, but too soon to pass judgment on these races.
NC-01 (D): Don Davis represents a politically-split district, and North Carolina’s aggressive gerrymander following the 2022 elections could flip this one as well. The 1st has a number of black-majority counties in it, which should boost Davis and the Democrats, but there are plenty of red-voting counties as well. This district was designed for a close race.
OR-05 (R): Democrats feel they should have won this seat in 2022, but a poor environment for the party plus infighting helped Lori Chavez-DeRemer get elected. She has the benefit of incumbency, but blue Oregon in a presidential year is not going to help her.
PA-07 (D) & PA-08 (D): A pair of neighboring eastern Pennsylvania seats that Democrats squeaked out in 2022. Susan Wild (7th) and Matt Cartwright (8th) have both been around a while, and have each won some tough races, but Wild was in a 2020 Biden district whereas Cartwright was not. Do not be surprised if both seats end up falling in the same direction on election night. Democratic hopes of a House majority may not be able to survive losing both.
WA-03 (D): This was one of the most surprising results in 2022. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez was a little-known businesswoman who won a seat in Congress, defeating a strong favorite in right-winger Joe Kent. Democrats barely got a third of the vote in the 2022 blanket primary, increasing the shock factor. Trump may win this district at the top of the ticket, but do not count her out.
What Would Happen If Incumbent Party Won All 2024 House Toss-Up Races?
Based on our current prediction, if the party currently holding the seat won all 19 of these races, the Republicans would win 221 seats and the Democrats would win 214.
In 2022, Republicans won 222 seats and the Democrats won 213.
