We previewed the 2024 Florida Senate race, which may prove more interesting than political observers might expect.
The conventional wisdom entering the stretch run of the 2024 election cycle is that in every Senate seat that matters, the Democrats are on defense and the Republicans are on offense.
Or are they?
In a prior preview, we sized up the possibilities in the Texas Senate race, a seat held by a Republican but one in which a close race was a possible outcome. Now, we shift our attention to Florida, another seat held by the GOP but one in which there is an incumbent who does not historically win elections by a lot, and where a few other factors in the state could put the contest in play.
2024 Florida Senate Race Preview in 4 Minutes or Less
Back in 2018, when Rick Scott flipped this seat, it was the first time since the 19th Century that the GOP held both of Florida’s Senate seats. It is not that big of a surprise, given that over the last decade, Florida has made a definitive shift to the right. The bottom-out 2022 midterm election results for Democrats in the state speak to that.
However, opinion polls have been competitive, Democratic motivation is up since Joe Biden dropped out of the race, and a constitutional amendment to enshrine abortion rights is on the ballot in Florida. The latter appears to have a wide lead in polling, but (1) it needs 60 percent to pass, (2) there are high undecideds, and (3) some “yes” voters will no doubt also vote for Trump and Scott, so do not assume all of those votes are transferable to Democrats.
2024 Florida Senate Race: Candidates
Links below are to Florida Senate candidate websites, if available. We never require you to follow outside links, and only follow links you trust. The source for candidate listings is Politics1.com.
- Rick Scott (R)*
- Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)
- Feena Bonoan (Lbt)
- Ben Everidge (I)
- TQ Nguyen (I)
- Howard Knepper (Write-in)
References Cited
Again, please only follow outside links you trust.
- With regards to Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s congressional voting record, we cited the American Conservative Union and Human Rights Campaign’s scorecards.
- There are multiple instances on Rick Scott’s website referring to Mucarsel-Powell as a “socialist” or supporting socialism, including press releases on August 21, August 26, August 27, and August 28, and in a Tallahassee Democrat/USA Today article on September 3. NB: In the August 27 release, Scott claimed that Mucarsel-Powell “won’t even recognize” Edmundo González as the legitimate president of Venezuela, but on August 7, she released a statement in which she said “the U.S. must lead this effort by encouraging our allies to recognize Edmundo González as the duly elected leader of Venezuela.”
- In another August 27 press release, Rick Scott’s campaign team referred to Mucarsel-Powell as a “partisan hack.”
- In an El Pais interview released on September 2, Mucarsel-Powell again stated her support for the Venezuelan opposition and accused Scott of “extremist tactics.”
- An article in The Hill on April 15 cited Scott’s desire for a 15-week abortion ban as opposed to the six-week ban which is now in force.
- We made reference to Scott’s “Rescue America Plan,” which has been public for several years.
Next Up
Election Yard will journey out to the heartland of America and find a rare competitive House race: the contest for Nebraska’s 2nd District.
