The October 2024 election calendar is busy in several places in the world.
Whereas there were some quiet months in the middle of 2024 in terms of elections, especially in the Northern Hemisphere during the summer, that is no longer the case. Not even counting the fact that the United States is in the middle of a momentous election campaign which will conclude the first week in November, other countries will dot the electoral landscape in October.
October 2024 Election Calendar: Canada
British Columbia (Oct. 19)
In 2020, NDP premier John Horgan surprised a few people by announcing a snap election in British Columbia during the Covid pandemic, while his party rode high in the polls. It paid off for Horgan, as the NDP was re-elected with a large majority.
A lot has changed in four years. Horgan is no longer premier of BC or NDP leader, the second-place party, the BC Liberals, no longer exists, and the NDP is in a close race with a party that had little impact on the 2020 election. The BC Liberals rebranded as BC United, then collapsed, and the Conservative Party has effectively replaced it. NDP leader David Eby will hope to win a term as premier in his own right in the face of a changing landscape. Polls indicate a close race with a change in government possible.
New Brunswick (Oct. 21)
The Maritime province of New Brunswick will be the second of three in the country to hold a provincial election. The province’s boundary commission redrew and renamed the ridings up and down the map, and that’s not the only thing which might change: the government could as well. Incumbent premier Blaine Higgs, a Progressive Conservative, is seeking a third term in office. He and his PCs may not get it. Opinion polls show a generally tight race between the PCs and the opposition Liberals, with the Greens in double-digits once again.
Higgs’ 2018 win by a single seat made for a shortened minority government, but his second win in 2020 was a majority. The Green Party could snatch a few seats, though the People’s Alliance, which was a factor in 2020, will be less of one this time, which is beneficial news for the PCs.
Saskatchewan (Oct. 28)
Scott Moe of the right-leaning Saskatchewan Party has been premier of the province since 2018. Including Brad Wall’s three election victories before him, the Saskatchewan Party has ruled the province for the last 17 years. They are going for a fifth election win in a row. Back in 2020, Moe’s SP won 48 out of 61 seats in the Legislature.
The governing party also claimed over 60 percent of the vote last time, something which will probably not be repeated. Carla Beck’s NDP has been more recently polling in the 40s, with a swing of some sort away from the SP likely.
October 2024 Election Calendar: Japan (Oct. 27)
Japan will have a new prime minister on October 1 named Shigeru Ishiba, a longtime legislator in the country who finally ascended to the party’s leadership. He is a member of the right-leaning Liberal Democratic Party, Japan’s traditional party of government which has ruled, with brief exception, for most of the last 70 years.
One of Ishiba’s first tasks as the prime-minister-to-be was announce that he will call a snap general election in four weeks on October 27. Anyone other than the LDP winning would be a massive political event. It’s also quite improbable.
October 2024 Election Calendar: Australia
Australian Capital Territory (Oct. 19)
Canberra and the rest of the ACT will head to the polls on the 19th to pick the new government. Andrew Barr of the Labor Party has been the territory’s chief minister since 2014, and Labor has not lost an election here since 1998. Barr himself has won two elections and is attempting to win a third. His last legislature was fragmented, with Labor winning only 10 of the 25 seats, but the Greens took six and joined a coalition. The opposition Liberals are led by Elizabeth Lee.
Queensland (Oct. 26)
The big prize for 2024 in Australian politics happens in Queensland on the 26th, when that state heads to the polls. Queensland may very well see a change in government.
Annastacia Palaszczuk of Labor led her party into power back in 2015 following a devastating swing against the Liberal National government. She would go on to win two further elections, her last being the largest: Labor won 52 out of 93 seats while the LNP dropped to 34.
However, Palaszczuk is gone and Labor’s Steven Miles is the state’s new premier. He faces Labor fatigue in the state after the party has had almost a decade in power. David Crisafulli leads the LNP opposition and hopes to be Queensland’s new leader before the year is out. Opinion polling suggests a large lead for the LNP on a two-party preferred basis, with the LNP potentially in line to pick up over 20 seats.
Other Notable October 2024 Elections
São Paulo, Brazil Mayoral Election (Oct. 6 & 27)
Rio de Janiero will also elect a new mayor, but the mayoral election in Brazil’s largest city has already made international news. You may remember that on September 15, candidate Pablo Marçal was attacked with a chair during a live debate by one of his opponents, José Luiz Datena. Incumbent mayor Ricardo Nunes is also running for re-election under the party banner of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB).
Should no candidate achieve a majority in the first round on October 6, a runoff round will be held on October 27.
Lithuania (Oct. 13 & 27)
The Republic of Lithuania is one of several European countries holding key elections between now and the end of the year. The largest party in their parliament is Homeland Union (TS–LKD), which is the party of the incumbent prime minister, Ingrida Šimonytė, but they are well short of an overall majority. Polling suggests that TS-LKD is behind at the moment while the Social Democratic Party has led for the better part of the last two years. However, TS-LKD got a plurality of the vote in June’s European Parliament election, improving their vote share from last time, so perhaps not all hope is lost for the government.
