The late 2024 elections calendar looks quite busy, in particular between the middle of October and early November.
Election Yard will have a lot to do in an 18-day stretch from October 19th to November 5th, and possibly beyond – we will get to that in a minute. This involves elections in four different countries around the world. Chances are you know what at least one of those is.
Late 2024 Elections: October and November
Australia
The Australian Capital Territory will elect a new government on 19 October. Labor has been in power for decades, though recently with the help of the Greens. ACT elections utilize proportional representation across a total of five electorates.
A week later, on 26 October, Queensland heads to the polls to elect a new state government. It is likely to result in a change of power, if opinion polls are to be believed. Labor has governed Queensland since 2015, but the opposition Liberal National Party has a sizable polling lead on a two-party preferred basis.
Canada
Three Canadian provinces will vote in October. First is British Columbia on October 19. This one could also result in a change of government, but in a very different political landscape than four years ago. The governing NDP is in a tight battle with the BC Conservatives, who were effectively a non-factor four years ago but are now the primary opposition to the NDP in the province.
Wait just two days and on October 21, you will have the next provincial election in New Brunswick. The Progressive Conservatives hope to win a third term with Blaine Higgs, but there are signs that the opposition Liberals may be pulling in front.
A week after New Brunswick votes, Saskatchewan will do the same on October 28. The right-leaning Saskatchewan Party has won four straight elections, including three massive majorities in a row. Scott Moe’s governing party won the provincial popular vote by almost 30 points last time, but polling shows this one could be significantly closer.
Japan
With a new prime minister, Japan will have its snap election on October 27. Shigeru Ishiba now leads the right-wing Liberal Democratic Party, the party of government in Japan for most of the post-war era. Absolutely any outcome other than the LDP getting re-elected would be a massive event.
United States
This is the big one, with elections up and down the United States on November 5. The big prize is the presidency, but thousands of elections from the federal to state to local levels will also take place. See our latest 2024 predictions here.
Late 2024 Elections: More to Come?
That’s right: There may yet be another major 2024 election to be scheduled. Similar to how the United Kingdom held a snap election around the holidays in 2019, this may also happen in Canada. However, if there were a festive season unscheduled election in Santa Claus’s backyard, it’s not going to be because Prime Minister Justin Trudeau wanted it.
The threat of the Liberal minority government falling has heightened since the summer. The left-wing New Democratic Party pulled out of a confidence-and-supply agreement with the sagging Liberals, and since Parliament resumed, the opposition Conservatives and separatist Bloc Québécois have dangled ultimatums in front of Trudeau. Pierre Poilievre, leader of the CPC, has already tried twice to remove the government by no-confidence vote, while Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet gave Trudeau until about the end of October to comply with several key policy demands.
If the government does not fall in the House of Commons, Canada will have a federal election in October 2025 – one which the Liberals look almost certain to lose. However, given that the Liberals can no longer rely on the NDP’s help in parliamentary votes or confidence motions, there is a non-zero chance that this election happens in 2024. The odds of the Trudeau government lasting until October 2025 seem very, very slim.
