On 19 October, the 2024 ACT election will be the latest, but not the last, vote to happen in Australia this year.
Voters in Australia’s capital will head to the polling stations and choose their next government. If it’s anything like the last handful of elections, that new government might look a lot like the old one.
The Labor Party is on a long win streak in the Australian Capital Territory, having won every election since 2001. The territory uses the Hare-Clark method of proportional representation, so majorities are rare. However, the chief minister’s role has been in Labor’s hands for over 20 years without interruption. Andrew Barr, the Labor leader and current chief minister of the ACT, will look to add yet another election win to the pile.
Previous ACT Election: 2020
Four years ago, at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, the territory voted for its new government. Labor was returned with the most seats, at 10 out of 25. This was a drop of two. Meanwhile, the center-right Liberals also fell two seats, going from 11 to nine. The big beneficiaries were the Greens, who jumped from two seats to six. (Source: ACT Electoral Commission)
Each electorate chooses five members based on proportional voting, for a total of 25 seats.
Prior to the election, Labor and the Greens governed in coalition.
What’s Happening in the 2024 ACT Election
Chief minister Andrew Barr has had a long tenure in government, leading the capital for ten years. He has stood by his record, and one issue upon which he has focused is healthcare. Barr led the Australian Capital Territory through Covid-19, and touted “an upgraded critical services building” at Canberra Hospital. (Source: ABC News)
The opposition Liberals, out of power in Canberra for 23 years, have campaigned on an obvious idea: Change. Elizabeth Lee, the Liberal leader, had also pledged to “commit $4.4M funding” towards a diabetes prevention program (Source: Instagram) while also promising to build a sports stadium “on the Acton waterfront.” (Source: ABC News)
In the ACT Greens’ election platform, they are of course focused on environmental issues, but they have also devoted attention to, for example, the cost of living crisis. Among their planks are “freezing rent increases” and the construction of “10,000 public homes.” (Source: ACT Greens)
Then, there are the Independents for Canberra, a political group that is exactly what it sounds like: Independent. Their goal is to shake up Canberra’s local politics and “change the status quo” and seat legislators who are beyond partisanship and ideological hang-ups. (Source: ABC News) Even two seats in a small 25-seat legislature like this one can impact who forms government.
2024 ACT Election Prediction
This should be fun, given that there is no opinion polling to guide anything we guess.
Canberra’s proportional representation system also makes it a bit trickier, but we are going to throw some numbers out there and see if they stick.
Our best guess, based on absolutely nothing, is Labor ends up with 11, the Liberals 9, the Greens five, and one independent, who for now we will assume is Thomas Emerson. Kurrajong looks like a wild electorate: All three party leaders and the lead Independents for Canberra candidate are all running there. One would think at least three, if not all four, could win. Who’s the fifth and final winner, then? The election could hang on it.
