October will be busy in Canadian politics, and the 2024 New Brunswick election is Atlantic Canada’s chance to raise its voice.
If one looks at the federal opinion polls in Canada, one story is painted. After almost a decade of Liberal government in Ottawa, the Maritimes, and especially New Brunswick, look poised to pivot to the federal Conservatives. However, on the provincial level, the setting is quite different. The Progressive Conservatives, led by Premier Blaine Higgs, have led the province for six years, and the winds of change may soon sweep them out as well.
Over the course of the next year, will New Brunswick swap out both their federal and provincial legislators for the opposite party? To see if that comes true, first we must get through the October 21 provincial election.
Last NB Election: New Brunswick 2020
The Progressive Conservatives, coming out of a very divided minority government situation in Fredericton, pulled the trigger on a snap election much like the BC NDP did. Also, like for said NDP, it worked, though the NDP’s election was a month later and Higgs won first. Blaine Higgs was re-elected to a majority government. It was the first PC majority since 2010.
In the end, Higgs won 27 seats. The Liberals, led by former Parliament Hill hero Kevin Vickers, dropped to 17. As for minor parties, the Greens further increased their vote share but not their seats, while the People’s Alliance eroded somewhat.1
What’s Happening in the 2024 New Brunswick Election
Our first note on the latter party we mentioned: The People’s Alliance still exists, but in name only. It was a conservative party which did well enough in 2018, but in the current term, its MLAs left the party and joined the PCs. It is running in the election in 2024, but its effectiveness will be in question.
There was also a major redrawing of riding boundaries this year.2 The province may only have 49 of them, but there were a lot of changes down at the local level. Some people out there will have different representation this year.
It has become well-known that Blaine Higgs sits to the political right. Some have suggested that this election could be a referendum on the premiership of Higgs himself3, who has been in charge for six years and ruffled a few feathers along the way. The Liberal opposition in the province has seized on this, with the Liberal leader, Susan Holt, staking out positions and a style which sets her apart from her PC opponent4. Holt and the Liberals are out to make this a change election. As for Higgs, his key plank for this election is a tax cut, reducing the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) from 15 to 13 percent.5
Meanwhile, David Coon and the Green Party issued a new party platform which prioritizes spending on public healthcare, but took criticism for not including the price tags for their policies.6
New Brunswick Election Prediction
Opinion polls are tight, but it appears based on all our reading that the Liberals are a little bit ahead overall. In looking for some guidance, we checked out 338Canada.com, the well-respected prognostication website. They acknowledge a slim Liberal lead in the popular vote, but have another PC government as the most likely outcome, if only by plurality.
Not to be contrary, but we’re not taking predictions too seriously, right? We are going with a Liberal majority government at 25 seats, with the PCs at 22 and the Greens falling back a bit to two. With all the boundary changes, it can be tough to pinpoint things and compare them to four years ago, but we do believe the Liberals will win the provincial popular vote, and further that it will translate into just enough success in places like Moncton and Saint John.
There is a real chance of minority government coming back to New Brunswick, especially if the Greens can scratch out a third seat. As of now, it’s possible but not what we expect. If they don’t, or get reduced to just one (Coon’s seat), the odds of a majority one way or another increase quite a bit.
References
- Fortieth General Provincial election: September 14, 2020. (2021). In Elections New Brunswick (ISBN 978-1-4605-2631-6). Elections New Brunswick. https://www.electionsnb.ca/content/dam/enb/pdf/2020-prov-rpt.pdf
- Electoral District Maps – Amended Final Report. (n.d.). Electoral Boundaries and Representation Commission. Retrieved October 17, 2024, from https://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/corporate/promo/boundaries-representation-commission/proposed-maps.html
- Nurse, A. (n.d.). The New Brunswick election is a referendum on Blaine Higgs’s divisive conservatism. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/the-new-brunswick-election-is-a-referendum-on-blaine-higgss-divisive-conservatism-231447
- The Canadian Press. (2024, October 17). N.B. Liberal leader Holt bills herself as ‘stark contrast’ to Tory incumbent Higgs. Global News. https://globalnews.ca/news/10815676/new-brunswick-election-liberal-leader-susan-holts/
- Poitras, J. (2024, October 1). Higgs faces the pros and cons of a one-promise campaign. CBC. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/higgs-one-promise-campaign-1.7336442
- Poitras, J. (2024b, October 9). Greens say they’d run short-term deficits to address health “crisis.” CBC. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/greens-full-platform-1.7347507
