The 2024 Michigan presidential race is the next preview at Election Yard, and with both campaigns targeting it, every vote will be critical.
Michigan is one of the so-called “Blue Wall” states which reliably voted Democratic in every election since 1992. Wisconsin, not the subject of today’s preview, even went blue in 1988 as well. However, the Blue Wall crumbled in 2016 with Donald Trump winning Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, which we featured earlier, and Michigan.
News got better for the Democrats in 2020, as Joe Biden rebuilt the Blue Wall en route to victory. Now, based on our evaluation of the race, if Kamala Harris keeps those three states together and in her column, little else will matter: She will have won the election.
2024 Michigan Presidential Race Preview as of October 18
So What’s The Deal With Michigan?
One thing is clear: Its 15 electoral votes might make or break either the Trump or Harris campaigns. Could either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump find a path to victory without it?
If Trump wins Michigan, assuming our electoral math video from earlier this year holds up, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to Harris only gets her to 256. She would need one of the three things to happen: (1) Hold Georgia, (2) Flip North Carolina, or (3) Hold Arizona and Nevada. Winning Michigan would be easier than any of the three options above, with the third ironically being the most possible.
However, if Harris wins Michigan, she has a number of paths to 270. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin get her over the top with no other close states getting involved. If she won Michigan and Pennsylvania, any other state but Nevada of the seven we have up for grabs would win her the election.
2024 Michigan Presidential Race: Sources Cited
In the video, we cited CNN’s 2022 exit poll to demonstrate how Gen Z voted very Democratic in the most recent election.
These are the election result sources we cited:
- Michigan Secretary of State
- Ingham County Clerk
- Kent County Clerk
- Macomb County Clerk
- Oakland County Clerk
- Saginaw County Clerk
- Washtenaw County Clerk
- Wayne County Clerk
A full list can be found at the end of the video.
Additional Reading
We also did a brief review of the ongoing Michigan Senate campaign.
