The 2024 Queensland election is on Saturday, October 26, and the state could once again be voting for change.
Back in 2015, Labor surprised everyone by winning back control from the Liberal National Party (LNP). Campbell Newman’s right-leaning LNP had won an historic mandate in 2012, almost sweeping the state, but faltered in their single term. Newman’s fall was about as dramatic as his rise, and Annastacia Palaszczuk became the state’s unlikely premier.
Palaszczuk won two more elections as Labor leader, but she was three terms and out, passing the torch to Steven Miles in late 2023. His task is to win Labor a fourth term, but opinion polls do not agree that it will happen.
Last QLD Election: Queensland 2020
Labor won a third term under Palaszczuk’s leadership, taking 52 seats out of 93 in Queensland’s lower house. The LNP, led at the time by Deb Frecklington, managed just 34 seats, a loss of five. Minor parties and an independent made up the remaining seven seats. (Electoral Commission of Queensland, 2020)
On a two-party preferred basis, Labor won by a margin of about 53 to 47 percent.
What’s Happening in the 2024 Queensland Election
This is the first Queensland election to happen after a four-year term. In 2016, Queenslanders voted to extend the term from three years, but the prior term rom 2017 to 2020 was still at three. This and future elections will be four. (“Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015,” 2016)
The word of the day in Queensland is “change.” Labor, in power since 2015, has been damaged by cost of living and crime issues, as well as a loss of the electorate’s faith in the prior premier, Palaszczuk. (Williams, n.d.) Her replacement, Steven Miles, has not fared too much better, if at all. The LNP leader and potential new premier, David Crisafulli, has maintained opinion polling leads both for his party and as the preferred leader of the state, depending on which pollster you ask. When an opposition leader has the edge in the “preferred premier” sweepstakes, a question which tends to benefit the incumbent, that’s when you know the game is up for the government.
Another issue which has come up is abortion. The Palaszczuk Labor government made the procedure legal, and there has been rumbling that a new LNP government would repeal or adjust the law. While Crisafulli himself has said he would not try to repeal the law, the right-wing Katter’s Australian Party said they will. (Pollard, 2024) This has brought a culture war angle to the campaign and given Labor an issue to exploit, though it may ultimately not make a difference. Nevertheless, if Crisafulli wins, he will have to face voices on the right, perhaps some within his own party, who want to make this a first-term issue.
Queensland Election Prediction
It certainly appears that time has run out for Queensland’s Labor government. The only thing left to consider is the size of the LNP win. Labor has been consistently behind in opinion polls since Miles became leader, and even before that, the Palaszczuk government was slipping.
This is not a huge surprise that Queenslanders would eventually want to change who is in charge: Going back to the days of Wayne Goss, Labor has run the state for all but five years since the tail end of 1989. Labor has been in power for almost a decade in their current term, and before Campbell Newman’s brief three years as premier, they led for 14 years prior to that. However, Queensland also has a tendency to keep parties in power for long stretches: Keeping in mind Labor’s current run, the National Party led Queensland almost uninterrupted for decades before Goss was elected.
Does this mean that if the LNP wins, they will be in power for a long time? Campbell Newman would like a word about that. All it means is this particular Labor government is leaving. Back in 2012, nobody could have predicted that Labor would be back one election later.
With that said, we predict an LNP majority government. About 54 percent 2PP sounds right, though it could be a bit higher. Should Labor hold the LNP to 53 percent or less, that would be a very respectable showing, all things considered. Over 55 percent and we are in blowout territory.
On a 7-percent uniform statewide swing, Labor would lose just under 20 seats. Keep in mind, this is just in terms of ALP vs. LNP seats. A weakened Labor could lose more seats to the Greens, who started this campaign on two seats. There has been some unpleasantness between the Greens and Labor over preference flow (McKenna & Black, 2024), which might make certain individual electorates hard to predict.
Our prediction is the LNP takes 53 seats, for a comfortable government majority of 13.
References
- Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015: An act to provide for fixed four-year terms for the Legislative Assembly in Queensland. (2016). In Government of Queensland (Act No. 15 of 2016). Queensland Government. Retrieved October 22, 2024, from https://www.legislation.qld.gov.au/view/pdf/asmade/act-2016-015
- Electoral Commission of Queensland. (2020, September 13). Electoral Commission of Queensland. https://results.elections.qld.gov.au/state2020
- McKenna, K., & Black, J. (2024, October 19). Labor preferences Legalise Cannabis Queensland ahead of Greens in 28 seats in state election. ABC News. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-19/queensland-election-labor-legalise-cannabis-greens-lnp/104476282
- Pollard, E. (2024, October 22). Robbie Katter clarifies plan to amend Queensland abortion laws first, before any repeal attempt. ABC News. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-22/robbie-katter-abortion-laws-queensland-election/104502092
- Williams, P. (n.d.). LNP is set for an easy win in Queensland, but its first term may pose a much greater challenge. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/lnp-is-set-for-an-easy-win-in-queensland-but-its-first-term-may-pose-a-much-greater-challenge-241009
