The last of Canada’s election gauntlet for this year is the 2024 Saskatchewan election, at least, for now.
We say “for now” because there is the ever-looming threat that the federal Trudeau government could fall at any time, leaving Canadians dealing with a general election. However, that has not happened yet, and Saskatchewan remains the last scheduled election of 2024.
In the first two provincial elections in October, voters were not kind to incumbent parties. In British Columbia, the BC NDP went in with a big majority, only to see themselves emerge in an essential tie with the Conservatives. As for New Brunswick, voters threw out their two-term Progressive Conservative government and elected a comfortable Liberal majority, and larger than expected. Scott Moe, premier and leader of the right-leaning Saskatchewan Party, hopes he can buck the trend.
The Saskatchewan Party has been in power longer than either of those other two governments by quite a bit. 17 years, to be exact: Brad Wall led the party to victory in 2007, and they have been in charge of Saskatchewan’s government ever since. Their majorities have generally grown, peaking at 51 out of 61 seats in 2016. The 2020 election was the first time they ever suffered a net loss of seats since the party was formed from the smoldering hulk of the Progressive Conservatives in the 1990s.
In Saskatchewan, the primary opposition is the left-leaning New Democratic Party. Can the NDP rebuild in Saskatchewan and make things interesting, or is the Saskatchewan Party headed for yet another large, ho-hum majority?
Last SK Election: Saskatchewan 2020
Four years ago, the Saskatchewan Party, led by Premier Scott Moe, won its fourth consecutive majority government. They lost a few seats from 2016, but dropped only from 51 to 48 out of 61 seats. The New Democrats saw a slight increase from 10 to 13.
Saskatchewan’s popular vote was also a rout. The governing SP won by about 29 points, while other parties outside of the SP and NDP combined for less than eight percent. (2020 Elections Saskatchewan, n.d.)
What’s Happening in the 2024 Saskatchewan Election
One key issue in the election is whether the election itself will result in any formidable opposition. For the past three elections in a row, the Saskatchewan Party has won massive majorities and the opposition in the province has been limited. Should the NDP make any sizable gains, it would be the first time in more than a decade that the legislature has had a respectable opposition presence.
Health care has otherwise been at play in the campaign. As the SP has run the province for 17 years, the issue has fallen squarely at the government’s feet. A Globe and Mail article describes the system as “barely surviving” (Smith & Richards, 2024), not thriving. Others have gone so far as to say that health care in Saskatchewan is “broken,” stemming in part from lack of personnel. (Benson, 2024)
NDP leader Carla Beck has hammered Scott Moe on this and, among other issues, the economy. (“Provincial Party Leaders Speak in Prince Albert Ahead of Final Vote on Monday,” 2024) If these are issues important to Saskatchewan voters which may sway votes, it would be hard for the government to point fingers anywhere else, except perhaps to an unfriendly Liberal administration in Ottawa. Moe, on the other hand, has touted his record and called for continued stability.
In what may be a minor point, the Saskatchewan Liberals fought their last election as such in 2020. Last year, they rebranded as the Saskatchewan Progress Party. It may not matter what their branding is, as the Liberals/Progress have not won a provincial seat since 1999.
2024 Saskatchewan Election Prediction
In 2020, at the height of Covid while incumbent governments were winning big, the Saskatchewan Party received over 60 percent of the popular vote en route to a landslide. It is not likely that this will be repeated. Opinion polling seems much closer this time.
The NDP will gain seats if for no other reason that there is nowhere to go but up; the question is how many. If we assume a generous 10-point swing to the NDP, which is not outside the realm of possibility, the Saskatchewan Party still wins the popular vote by about ten. That endangers maybe 10 to 12 SP seats. Some of the rural seats are so entrenched that it would take huge swings to loosen them, which are unrealistic. If the NDP is going to do damage, it will have to be in Regina and Saskatoon.
Expect the NDP to make some gains, but victory is not likely this time. We predict the Saskatchewan Party to be re-elected to a majority government with 37 seats, while the NDP improves to 24. This would be the latter’s best showing in a long while. No other parties will win a seat in the legislature.
References
- 2020 elections Saskatchewan. (n.d.). https://results.elections.sk.ca/ge29/
- Benson, A. (2024, October 24). How Saskatchewan faces a ‘broken health-care system’ heading into the election. Global News. https://globalnews.ca/news/10829552/saskatchewan-broken-health-care-system-election/
- Provincial party leaders speak in Prince Albert ahead of final vote on Monday. (2024, October 24). larongeNOW. https://larongenow.com/2024/10/24/provincial-party-leaders-speak-in-prince-albert-ahead-of-final-vote-on-monday/
- Smith, A., & Richards, P. B. L. (2024, October 24). Saskatchewan health care system a central topic in next week’s election as workers say it is ‘barely surviving.’ The Globe and Mail. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-saskatchewan-election-health-care-crisis/
