The 2024 Japanese election results have made one thing clear: the long-time government of the country, the Liberal Democratic Party, has lost its majority for the first time in over a decade.
As results continue to be counted from the October 27 election, a much weaker government is expected in the Japanese House of Representatives. Prior to the snap election, called by new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the center-right Liberal Democratic Party had more than the necessary 233 seats to govern alone. However, they have a right-wing coalition partner, Komeito, which put them well over the mark in the prior election.
The bad news for the LDP and Komeito this time is that dissatisfaction with the government and several scandals have cost them their majority.
Japan’s election came in the middle of a busy time period in world elections which this website has documented.
2024 Japanese Election Results: As of Monday Morning JST
Japanese broadcaster NHK World has the LDP-Komeito coalition at 208 seats while various opposition parties are at 235. 233 out of 465 seats are required for a majority government, meaning LDP and Komeito can no longer win the election outright as coalition partners. (NHK Broadcasting, 2024)
Not all opposition parties are on the ideological left, however, meaning that the LDP-Komeito coalition will likely still be able to form a minority government even if no other party supports them. The Japan Innovation Party, a right-wing party, could have been an ideal third coalition member, but they will not join such a government, as they are reformers and the LDP are every bit the country’s political old guard. (Nippon Ishin Denies Coalition With LDP, 2024)
What Does It All Mean?
Japanese politics are remarkably static, for the most part. It is rare for the Liberal Democratic Party to lose in any fashion. Yet, in 2024, it has happened to an extent. In the short-term, the threat of instability could scare the stock markets.
Prime Minister Ishiba is off now to a rocky start. He will finish first in this snap election in terms of seats, but a slush fund scandal and discontent over economic hardship among the public have led to a disappointing result. (AFP, 2024) Understand just how noteworthy even this result is: The LDP has governed Japan for the vast majority of its post-war era. This 2024 election result is quite rare territory for them, and even though they are not likely to be banished to opposition, they are feeling the sting.
Do not expect the main opposition, the center-left Constitutional Democratic Party, to form a government. Parties on their ideological side are few and far between. Japan Innovation, of the right, is very unlikely to coalition with them. The expected outcome is an LDP-Komeito minority government, with another early election perhaps to come within the next few years.
References
- AFP. (2024, October 27). Japan’s scandal-plagued ruling party set to lose majority for first time in 15 years. Fortune. https://fortune.com/2024/10/27/japan-election-scandal-ruling-party-ldp-majority-shigeru-ishiba/
- Nippon Ishin Denies Coalition with LDP. (2024, October 24). nippon.com. https://www.nippon.com/en/news/yjj2024102301042/
- NHK Broadcasting. (2024, October 27). Ruling bloc projected to lose majority. NHK WORLD. https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/backstories/3625/
