The 2025 Australian election has been called by the prime minister for May 3.
Legally, it would have had to be called within the next few weeks as the current Parliament nears its expiration. The Labor Party was elected in 2022, ending nine years of Liberal-National Coalition government, and the man who called it was Anthony Albanese, the prime minister.
Parallels to Elsewhere
Like another country under threat of American tariffs, Canada will vote on the same week, on April 28.
The only other parallel between their situations is that both have centre-left governments trying to get re-elected. Canada may have a new prime minister, but the Liberals there have been in power for almost a decade. In Australia, however, Anthony Albanese and Labor are seeking a second term.
It is very rare in Australian politics for an elected federal government to be denied a second term. The last time this happened was almost a century ago, and it took a global depression to dislodge them. However, with Labor’s 2022 victory being so narrow, despite history being on their side, can they count on the voters giving them another go?
2025 Australian Election Called: The Last Election
In 2022, Albanese led Labor to a majority government, claiming 77 seats out of 151. This led to a narrow majority of three seats, further reduced by Labor electing a speaker. The Coalition dropped to 58 seats.
Other than Labor returning to power after an extended period, the 2022 election’s main contribution was the rise of other parties. The Coalition and Labor combined for about 68 percent of the primary vote. For comparison, it was almost 75 percent in 2019, and almost 77 percent in 2016. Independents racked up 10 seats, while other parties, including the Greens (4), took the other six. Labor may have won a majority, but the House of Representatives which was just dissolved had many more independent and minor-party voices than in years past.
2025 Australian Election Called: The Issues
Economic issues will be at the forefront of Australia’s May election. A January survey by Roy Morgan showed that cost of living was, by far, the number-one issue on the minds of the Australian electorate, where voting is compulsory. The other top issue they identified was healthcare. (Top 10 Issues Shaping the 2025 Federal Election: Cost of Living and Crime on the Rise, Climate Change Fades – Roy Morgan Research, n.d.)
The threat also looms of tariffs from the United States. Australia is not under the same scope of direct threat as America’s next-door neighbour, but the tariff fairy can strike at any time. With economic hardship already being at the front of voters’ minds, this situation could occur to the electorate as they make their decision as well.
Who Will Win?
Expect a full prediction of all 151 federal electorates to come soon.
As mentioned before, if we are to use history as a guide, then Labor will form the next government, whether or not it’s a majority. Do the opinion polls agree, however?
At the moment, yes, they do. Labor had been behind on a two-party preferred basis for much of this year, but as the election has come into focus, and other global issues abound, Labor has at least pulled even, if not ahead, in several surveys. Labor’s 2022 win was about 52-48 2PP, so even a 50-50 split would represent a two-point swing to the Coalition, and a probable loss of their majority.
Yet, the Coalition came into this election needing to pick up 18 seats from last time to form a majority. That is not happening on a 50-50 2PP split unless they can knock off a bunch of “Teal” independents who took some of their former safe seats.
References
Top 10 issues shaping the 2025 federal election: Cost of living and crime on the rise, climate change fades – Roy Morgan Research. (n.d.). https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9797-most-important-issues-facing-australia-january-2025
