Our 2025 Canadian election predictions have launched, and we can now reveal who we believe will win the April 28 vote.
Riding-by-riding predictions are available at the links below, should you wish go to further than the big picture. You probably will, since there are going to be some notable shifts, and potentially even party leaders losing their seats.
In an election dominated by Donald Trump and the United States, and specifically how Canada deals with both, the calculus changed almost overnight. What looked like a clear and decisive victory for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives against the Liberals’ Justin Trudeau is no longer on the menu. Trudeau is gone, Mark Carney is in, and the New Democratic Party, amongst others, are down and out.
2025 Canadian Election Predictions: Big Picture
This prediction was updated on March 29, 2025.
Seat Ranges
Below are the ranges of predicted outcomes for each party in the next election. The number to the left represents the party’s worst-case scenario, while the right number is their best-case scenario. These were determined after assessing each party’s chances in all 343 ridings.
2025 Canadian Election Predictions by Province: Riding-by-Riding
Click on the links below to navigate to riding-by-riding election predictions.
| Atlantic Canada (NL, PEI, NS, NB) | Quebec |
| Ontario | Prairies (MB, SK) |
| Alberta | British Columbia |
| North (YT, NT, NU) |
2025 Canadian Election Predictions Overall Analysis
Most recently-updated analysis at the top.
March 29
What a difference three months makes. At the start of the new year, the Liberal government was dead in the water, and the only question was how big the new Conservative majority would be. Pierre Poilievre was all but inside the prime minister’s office, measuring the curtains.
Then America happened. Donald Trump and his administration have constantly taunted their northern neighbours since returning for his second term, threatening, and enacting, tariffs while also stating their desire to annex the country and admit it to the Union. They have even done this on Canadian soil. Trudeau left on a high note, standing up to the United States, while economist Mark Carney rode into the Liberal leadership with momentum. The Conservative advance stopped and then reversed as Canadians have been asking themselves who they want to lead the charge against economic aggression.
It is not merely that the Conservatives are not keeping up, and have in fact slipped from their astronomical highs. The New Democratic Party is on the brink of collapse. NDP voters, some not wanting Poilievre to win the election, have gravitated towards the Carney Liberals. We predict Jagmeet Singh will lose his seat in Burnaby, and all but eight of their seats will disappear. There is a worst-case scenario in which either Edmonton Strathcona or Vancouver East is their only seat left in the entire country. This is shaping up to be a disaster for Team Orange and their messaging is not seen to have met the moment.
As for the Bloc Quebecois, we forecast them in the mid-20s. They are susceptible to a Liberal rise in the polls in and around Montreal, while they are trying to hold off the Conservatives in the east and near Quebec City. They won’t hold onto their seats everywhere, but their poll numbers are not so bad that we forecast a huge loss for them.
