To the surprise of some, the Republicans have found themselves engaged in battle to win two 2025 Florida special elections.
The Tuesday, April 1 elections will take place in the 1st and 6th Congressional Districts of Florida. Republicans have dominated in both areas, and both vacancies were created by political figures that people might know. These occur on the same day as a hotly-contested Supreme Court race in Wisconsin.
Florida went from a swing state 25 years ago to being a solid red state today. Its shift would make one believe that there are no competitive seats in the Sunshine State. In general, that is true, but is either race going to beat that conventional wisdom? Some Democrats think there is a chance in at least one of them.
2025 Florida Special Elections: The Districts
The April 1 elections are slated for Florida-01 and Florida-06.
Florida’s 1st District is located in the furthest-west portion of the Panhandle. It includes locations such as Pensacola, Destin, Crestview, and Eglin Air Force Base.
The First was represented by Republican Matt Gaetz, a well-known MAGA firebrand and Trump loyalist. He was originally nominated by Trump to be attorney general, but upon the announcement, doubts arose that he would secure Senate confirmation. Gaetz had resigned from the US House, but then also withdrew from consideration for the Justice Department posting. Gaetz never took his seat in the 119th Congress despite being elected in November.
As for the 6th District, that was represented by another man whose name has been in the news, Mike Waltz. He had first been elected to this post in 2018, and did take his seat following the 2024 election, but resigned shortly into his term to become the National Security Advisor.
Florida’s 6th District is on the northeastern coast of the state. South of Jacksonville but north of Orlando, this seat’s main population areas include Daytona Beach, Palm Coast, DeLand, and Palatka.
Donald Trump carried the 1st District in 2024 by a margin of 68 to 31 percent. Trump won the 6th District by a 64 to 34 margin. Neither area has been represented by a Democrat in decades.
2025 FL-01 Special Election
Candidates:
| Jimmy Patronis (R) | Florida Chief Financial Officer |
| Gay Valimont (D) | Gun violence prevention advocate |
| Stephen Broden (I) | |
| Richard Dembinsky (Write-In) | |
| Stanley Gray (Write-In) | |
| Stan McDaniels (Write-In) |
In an uninteresting world, the Republicans would win this seat going away. Patronis is a statewide elected official running against someone who has never held elected office. Furthermore, Patronis is running in one of the reddest seats in the country. Simply put, this should not be a race about which any of us would be talking in a normal timeline.
However, there are a few nervous Republicans. Patronis himself has said that this race is “too close for me” and noted in a recent Fox News hit that his opponent, Gay Valimont, is outspending him. (Gancarski, 2025) This could be a smart play by the GOP, downplaying expectations so that they may under-promise and over-deliver on election day. Nevertheless, Valimont has gotten positive press in the district
from outlets such as the Pensacola News Journal, even though few believe a Democrat can actually win the seat.
2025 FL-06 Special Election
Candidates:
| Randy Fine (R) | State Senator |
| Josh Weil (D) | School teacher |
| Andrew Parrott (Lbt) | |
| Randall Terry (I) | |
| Chuck Sheridan (Write-In) |
If you thought the GOP was on edge to any degree about FL-01, they definitely are with regards to FL-06. It’s still a very red seat, though perhaps slightly less so than the 1st District. So, why is the GOP not running away with this race?
Randy Fine, a GOP state senator who has Donald Trump’s blessing, has planted himself into controversy more than once. This election campaign has shown at least one example of it. During a recent Florida Senate meeting, Fine berated a public speaker, wearing a keffiyeh, as having sported a “terrorist rag.” The senator later doubled down on the remarks, and also referred to his Democratic opponent as “Jihad Josh.” (Webb, 2025)
Last year, Fine, then a state representative, was found in contempt of court and ordered to participate in anger management. (Hanson, 2024)
CNN recently reported that national Republicans were worried about Fine’s campaign (Ferris et al., 2025), while Josh Weil is reported to have vastly outraised his GOP opponent. Weil, age 40, is a public school teacher who filed to run for US Senate in 2022 but did not qualify for the Democratic primary ballot.
2025 Florida Special Elections: GOP Cakewalks, Or Are They?
The Republicans should win both special elections, but watch the margins. Republicans held both of these seats in 2024 by such large margins that any narrowing here would not be a big surprise.
Yet, it looks like there could be big swings against the GOP in both. Should the Republicans do the unthinkable and lose either one, it would mean a massive upset or upsets have occurred. One of these seats going blue would be the rough political equivalent of Democrats losing a House special election in Massachusetts.
Even if the 1st District appears to be a bridge too far for a motivated Democratic uprising, is the 6th District? Polling suggests that perhaps it is not. A St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics poll released on March 26 showed Fine ahead four points, 48 to 44 percent. (Ogles, 2025) Republicans and the Trump White House are evidently worried enough about the outcome that Elise Stefanik’s UN ambassador nomination got pulled, keeping her in the House and maintaining their slim majority as-is without having to fight another potentially perilous special election.
References
Ferris, S., John, A., Wright, D., & Contorno, S. (2025, March 27). Republicans grow concerned about Trump’s handpicked candidate in Florida special election. CNN. Retrieved March 30, 2025, from https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/27/politics/randy-fine-florida-special-election/index.html
Gancarski, A. (2025, March 29). ‘Too close for me’: Jimmy Patronis says he’s in trouble against Gay Valimont. Florida Politics – Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government. https://floridapolitics.com/archives/728949-patronis-valimont/
Hanson, M. (2024, October 1). State Rep. Randy Fine ordered to anger management after contempt ruling. WESH. https://www.wesh.com/article/florida-randy-fine-ordered-anger-management-contempt-ruling/62474695
Ogles, J. (2025, March 26). Poll shows CD 6 Special Election within margin of error. Florida Politics – Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government. https://floridapolitics.com/archives/728263-poll-shows-cd-6-special-election-within-margin-of-error/
Webb, A. (2025, March 28). Only on 9: Man whom Florida Sen. Fine made ‘terrorist rag’ comment to speaks out. WFTV. https://www.wftv.com/news/local/only-9-man-whom-florida-sen-fine-referred-terrorist-rag-speaks-out/PQKMOFOTABG7FJ5NGW3IBZ3QHE/
