The much-anticipated 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court race culminates with an election on Tuesday, April 1.
This time of year is known for several things in the United States: Raising temperatures, the start of baseball season, trees in bloom, and Wisconsin holding critical spring elections which are watched by the entire country. Tracking the margins in Waukesha County in the spring are as American as Grandma’s apple pie and watching the Masters.
2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court Race: How We Got Here
2025 will be no different, as the ideological majority on Wisconsin’s Supreme Court is in the balance. Two years ago, Wisconsin, one of America’s most critical swing states, saw a highly-contentious poll to win a seat being vacated by a conservative judge. In the end, liberal judge Janet Protasiewicz won the election handily, flipping the court to the left side.
That election was consequential in that Wisconsin’s high court would later strike down the state’s legislative district maps as being unfairly gerrymandered. Democrats went on to pick up 10 seats in the Assembly and four seats in the Senate, though still in the minority in both. Donald Trump also won the state by a narrow margin in 2024, so it has not been all good news for Democrats in the state these past two years.
In this election, Republicans are trying to return the favor, as liberal justice Ann Bradley is standing down this year, putting the balance of the court up for grabs again. Supreme Court justices in Wisconsin serve ten-year terms.
2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court Race Candidates
| Susan Crawford | Dane County Circuit Court judge |
| Brad Schimel | Former state attorney general and current Waukesha County Circuit Court judge |
Elections for the Wisconsin Supreme Court are non-partisan elections, meaning neither candidate will have an (R) nor a (D) next to their name on the ballot. However, ideologies of the candidates are well within view. Crawford is a liberal with a vast array of Democratic endorsements, while Schimel is a conservative who is getting significant help from Elon Musk and others.
National Involvement in Wisconsin
It has become common for these Wisconsin judicial races to get national attention. This year, that has been kicked into high gear. The 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court race has become the most expensive judicial race in American history. As of March 26, over $81 million had been spent in the election campaign, a majority of which has been in favor of Schimel. Elon Musk’s America PAC is responsible for about $11.5 million of it, the most spent by any group outside of the campaigns themselves. (Buying Time 2025 – Wisconsin, 2025)
Though there are other outside groups getting involved, Musk’s influence on this election has been outsized. However, for now, the courts are permitting him to continue his million-dollar giveaways ahead of the vote for those who sign one of his petitions. The state’s Democratic attorney general, Josh Kaul, had sued to stop it as a violation of Wisconsin law. (Beaumont, 2025)
Some might say that this race cannot be taken as a barometer on the popularity of Donald Trump. After all, this is a state judicial election, not a national campaign, and the Protasiewicz victory in 2023 did not portend anything for the following year. Yet, with the heavy involvement of Musk, who is very much a central figure in the Trump Administration, it can be difficult to say otherwise. It could even be more of barometer on Musk’s popularity than the president himself. The candidates themselves can get lost in the shuffle as outside influences converge on the state.
Who Will Win the 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court Race?
Opinion polling has been limited, and mostly conducted by Republican-affiliated polling firms. For example, a late March poll by On Point Politics/SoCal Strategies had Crawford ahead by eight points, 50 to 42. (Substack, n.d.)
As of March 28, according to the Wisconsin Elections Commission, deep-blue Dane County had seen almost 82 percent of its absentee ballots returned. Another big, blue county, Milwaukee, had seen about a 78-percent return rate. However, in the red big three WOW counties, Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington, the return rate was over 87 percent. (March 24–30 Daily Absentee Ballot Reports – April 1, 2025 Spring Election, 2025)
If polling is anywhere near accurate, then Crawford has the inside track. The key here is that this looks like a high-turnout election, if the early voting data is any indication. That lends credibility to the idea that this could end up as a close race on election night.
References
Beaumont, T. (2025, March 29). Wisconsin judge won’t stop Musk’s $1 million payments to voters | AP News. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-supreme-court-musk-million-dollar-checks-43fa79215e16c333a1079a86cb9aab08
Buying Time 2025 – Wisconsin. (2025, March 25). Brennan Center for Justice. https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/buying-time-2025-wisconsin
March 24–30 Daily absentee ballot reports – April 1, 2025 Spring election. (2025, March 28). Wisconsin Elections Commission. https://elections.wi.gov/resources/statistics/march-24-30-daily-absentee-ballot-reports-april-1-2025-spring-election
Substack. (n.d.). Susan Crawford in strong position to win Wisconsin Court Race, SoCal Strategies Poll Finds. https://substack.com/home/post/p-159966595
