Below are the 2025 Australian election predictions. If you want to know who’s going to The Lodge in May, look no further.
As we mentioned in our introductory article on the day the election was called, it is very rare for a first-term government not to get a second. You would have to go back over 90 years into the Great Depression for the last time Australian voters tossed out a government in such a way.
However, that does not mean that Anthony Albanese and Labor are guaranteed a second term, nor does it mean a majority is in the cards if they do. The Liberal-National Coalition, led by Peter Dutton, will try to be the first opposition in almost a century to force just that.
Albanese’s first term has not been all sunshine and flowers, and Labor has taken a few hits here and there. Will they win on May 3rd, or is the Coalition coming back after just three years out of power?
2025 Australian Election Predictions: Big Picture
Seat Ranges
The following is the expected range of outcomes for each party, calculated after reviewing the chances of victory for each party in all 151 electorates. On the left is the number which represents a party’s worst-case scenario; their best-case scenario is on the right.
2025 Australian Election Predictions By State
Click on the state or territory below for a link to our seat-by-seat predictions.
| Australian Capital Territory | New South Wales |
| Northern Territory | Queensland |
| South Australia | Tasmania |
| Victoria | Western Australia |
2025 Australian Election Predictions Analysis
Most recent analysis at top.
April 1
As of now, we consider Labor to be in front in this election, but even we were surprised when we spit out a prediction of 76 seats – a majority government. The expectation going in was that they would end up with the most seats, but falling a few short of an overall majority.
Labor is close enough in several seats that we felt comfortable erring on their side. Further, it appears that with Labor sitting at 50 to 51 percent nationally on a two-party preferred basis, the swings to the Coalition might not be large enough in some places to topple them.
The Coalition has another problem when it comes to seeking out a majority of their own: The Teals. Those independent candidates, by and large, look to be in decent shape in our first run of predictions. There does not appear to be a realistic path for Dutton and the Coalition to get to 76 seats without winning back a handsome portion of those seats, most of which came off of their backs in 2022.
We do not enter this campaign with a ton of confidence that Labor will win another majority, but they appear to have a much better chance than the Coalition for now.
