Below are Election Yard’s detailed 2024 British election predictions.
This article will be updated periodically until the 4 July 2024 election. As there are over 600 individual races, constituencies are broken into regions and separate pages.
Predictions last updated 2 July 2024 – final predictions for all 650 constituencies.
2024 British Election Predictions: Final Overall Prediction
Note: Changes in seats shown above are from 2019 general election
Interpreting the Prediction: Bottom Line
Labour is extremely likely to win the general election with a majority government; a landslide victory is a probable outcome.
We believe Labour will win within a likelihood range of 353 to 472 seats, with our best guess being 412 seats (net gain of 210 from 2019).
The Conservatives will win in a range from 59 to 185 seats, with our prediction as 128 (net loss of 237).
As for the Liberal Democrats, we see them winning between 42 and 74 seats, with our predicted outcome as 56 (net gain of 45).
The Scottish National Party is on track for a forecast range of 14 to 35 seats, with a prediction of 20 seats (net loss of 28).
Finally, the Reform Party will land in a range of two to 22 seats, with our best guess being six (net gain of 6).
As this time, we believe the worst-case scenario for Labour is winning a majority of 56 seats; their best-case scenario is a majority of 294.
Editor’s Note
All anyone can say is wow, especially us. We are forecasting a Labour landslide which will bring the Liberal Democrats back as a political force, hand the Conservatives their worst election result in almost two centuries, and see a new party on the right gain a foothold in the House of Commons.
The worst-case scenario for Labour is a comfortable working majority of over 50. However, the Conservatives’ worst-case is far worse than we would have predicted even a month ago: a potential third-place finish. In very few places should they be considered “safe.” This election campaign has been disastrous for the Tories, the Lib Dem vote will be efficient, Labour is far ahead, and Reform is chipping away at them from the right. Expect the Conservatives to haemmorhage seats, and with how poorly the campaign has gone, they would probably take 128 seats and run.
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