The 2024 California-22 House Race will be one of the most competitive in the country, and one in which the GOP will have to hold on against a blue flood.
California’s 22nd District sits in the San Joaquin Valley (or generally the Central Valley, depending on what you choose to call it), and when it comes to its politics, one might wonder how the incumbent keeps winning. That representative is David Valadao, a Republican who first made it to Congress in 2012, and though he lost an election in 2018, he returned in 2020 and was re-elected in 2022.
Other House races we have previewed include New York-17, another in which an endangered GOP incumbent is hoping to win again.
2024 California-22 House Race in 4 Minutes or Less
California has its Republican pockets. Ironically enough, the 22nd as a whole is not one of them. However, Valadao is a known quantity in this region and at least on paper claims moderate and bipartisan credentials. His personal popularity and name recognition can get him far, but will the Kamala Harris wave in California knock him (and other House GOP incumbents) out the door?
CA-22 Candidates
California had its top-two primary in March; the below were the leading candidates who advanced to the general election. These are links to the candidates’ websites. Please only click on outside links you trust.
- David Valadao (R)*
- Rudy Salas
2024 California-22 House Race: Basic Information
In 2022, the general election also featured Valadao and Salas. Valadao won by three points, 51.5 to 48.5 percent. As we noted in the video, however, turnout across the counties in CA-22 was low in the 2022 midterms. One would expect a significant uptick in a presidential year with a home-state candidate on the ballot.
Valadao wins this district as a Republican despite the district’s Democratic lean. The 22nd did not exist in its current form during the 2020 election, but if it had, Joe Biden would have won it by double-digits. Nevertheless, Valadao was here winning it in 2020 and 2022.
California is going very, very blue in November 2024. Not only is it one of the bluest states in the country as of now, but the Democratic nominee for president is a literal Californian. Talk of anyone aside from Kamala Harris winning this state is a fantasy. The question is even if the blue wave crashes all over the Golden State, will Valadao have enough personal popularity to win? Salas will try to tie him to the tumultuous House GOP majority, and himself to Harris.
As we noted, this race may remind you of the Montana Senate race: Republican Valadao has to win here while his party gets smoked up the ballot, just like Democrat Jon Tester in red Montana. At least for Valadao, this is not a statewide election.
Sources Cited in the Video
We cited the US Census Bureau for information on the demographic breakdown of CA-22, which is almost three-quarters Hispanic or Latino.
California’s Secretary of State was our source for voter turnout statistics in 2022 and 2024.
Exit polls: Cited the ABC News 2022 national exit poll and the 2020 CNN exit poll specific to California.
Election Yard cited Daily Kos for its research into how post-redistricting districts would have voted in 2020. We also noted the Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voter Index (PVI) score for CA-22.
We cited David Valadao’s website with regard to his stances on energy and so forth, and cited the Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America website for Valadao’s record on anti-abortion legislation.
On Salas, we noted here that he is on the DCCC’s Red-to-Blue target list.
Next Up
We turn back to the presidential race for the next installment. Election Yard already previewed the race in Pennsylvania, but now we go west and set our sights on Michigan.
