Below are the 2024 Presidential election predictions in the United States. This page was last updated on September 10, 2024.
State-by-state ratings and best guesses are below. Page will be updated regularly between now and November, with the final predictions being issued by November 3.
Election day in the United States is November 5, 2024.
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Additional Reading & Viewing
- How Many Electoral Votes In Play?
- Joe Biden Drops Out of Presidential Race
- Kamala Harris Picks Tim Walz as Running Mate
- Michigan 2024 Presidential Race Preview
- Pennsylvania 2024 Presidential Race Preview
- Wisconsin 2024 Presidential Race Preview
2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Overall and Map
Kamala Harris (D) predicted leader with 226 electoral votes. Donald Trump (R) predicted to receive 219 electoral votes. A total of 270 electoral votes is required to win; should no presidential candidate achieve 270, a contingent election will take place in the United States House of Representatives.
Breakdown by Strength
2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Electoral Vote High-Low Ranges
2024 Presidential Election Predictions: State-by-State
States are listed in alphabetical order. Values in parenthesis are the electoral votes by state. Below the prediction line are the 2020 election results in the state.
Maine and Nebraska are broken down at the overall and congressional district levels.
| Alabama (9) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 62.03%, Biden (D) 36.57% |
| Alaska (3) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 52.83%, Biden (D) 42.77% |
| Arizona (11) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 49.36%, Trump (R) 49.06% |
| Arkansas (6) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 62.40%, Biden (D) 34.78% |
| California (54) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 63.48%, Trump (R) 34.32% |
| Colorado (10) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 55.40%, Trump (R) 41.90% |
| Connecticut (7) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 59.26%, Trump (R) 39.19% |
| Delaware (3) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 58.74%, Trump (R) 39.77% |
| District of Columbia (3) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 92.15%, Trump (R) 5.40% |
| Florida (30) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 51.22%, Biden (D) 47.86% |
| Georgia (16) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 49.47%, Trump (R) 49.24% |
| Hawaii (4) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 63.73%, Trump (R) 34.27% |
| Idaho (4) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 63.84%, Biden (D) 33.07% |
| Illinois (19) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 57.54%, Trump (R) 40.55% |
| Indiana (11) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 57.03%, Biden (D) 40.96% |
| Iowa (6) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 53.09%, Biden (D) 44.89% |
| Kansas (6) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 56.14%, Biden (D) 41.51% |
| Louisiana (8) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 58.46%, Biden (D) 39.85% |
| Maine (2 – state level) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 53.09%, Trump (R) 44.02% |
| Maine CD-01 (1) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 60.11%, Trump (R) 37.02% |
| Maine CD-02 (1) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 52.26%, Biden (D) 44.82% |
| Maryland (10) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 65.36%, Trump (R) 32.15% |
| Massachusetts (11) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 65.60%, Trump (R) 32.14% |
| Michigan (15) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 50.62%, Trump (R) 47.84% |
| Minnesota (10) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 52.40%, Trump (R) 45.28% |
| Mississippi (6) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 57.60%, Biden (D) 41.06% |
| Missouri (10) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 56.80%, Biden (D) 41.41% |
| Montana (4) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 56.92%, Biden (D) 40.55% |
| Nebraska (2 – state level) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 58.22%, Biden (D) 39.17% |
| Nebraska CD-01 (1) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 56.01%, Biden (D) 41.09% |
| Nebraska CD-02 (1) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 51.95%, Trump (R) 45.45% |
| Nebraska CD-03 (1) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 75.36%, Biden (D) 22.34% |
| Nevada (6) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 50.06%, Trump (R) 47.67% |
| New Hampshire (4) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 52.71%, Trump (R) 45.36% |
| New Jersey (14) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 57.33%, Trump (R) 41.40% |
| New Mexico (5) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 54.29%, Trump (R) 43.50% |
| New York (28) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 60.87%, Trump (R) 37.74% |
| North Carolina (16) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 49.93%, Biden (D) 48.59% |
| North Dakota (3) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 65.12%, Biden (D) 31.78% |
| Ohio (17) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 53.27%, Biden (D) 45.24% |
| Oklahoma (7) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 65.37%, Biden (D) 32.29% |
| Oregon (8) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 56.45%, Trump (R) 40.37% |
| Pennsylvania (19) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 49.85%, Trump (R) 48.69% |
| Rhode Island (4) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 59.39%, Trump (R) 38.61% |
| South Carolina (9) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 55.11%, Biden (D) 43.43% |
| South Dakota (3) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 61.77%, Biden (D) 35.61% |
| Tennessee (11) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 60.66%, Biden (D) 37.45% |
| Texas (40) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 52.06%, Biden (D) 46.48% |
| Utah (6) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 58.13%, Biden (D) 37.65% |
| Vermont (3) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 66.09%, Trump (R) 30.67% |
| Virginia (13) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 54.11%, Trump (R) 44.00% |
| Washington (12) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 57.97%, Trump (R) 38.77% |
| West Virginia (4) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 68.62%, Biden (D) 29.69% |
| Wisconsin (10) |
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| 2020: Biden (D) 49.45%, Trump (R) 48.82% |
| Wyoming (3) |
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| 2020: Trump (R) 69.94%, Biden (D) 26.55% |
States Arranged by 2020 Percentage Margins
Biden/Democratic states at the top; Trump/Republican states at the bottom. Maine and Nebraska congressional districts broken out as well. 2024 electoral votes shown in parenthesis.
| District of Columbia (3) | DEM +86.75% |
| Vermont (3) | DEM +35.41% |
| Massachusetts (11) | DEM +33.46% |
| Maryland (10) | DEM +33.21% |
| Hawaii (4) | DEM +29.46% |
| California (54) | DEM +29.16% |
| New York (28) | DEM +23.13% |
| Maine CD-01 (1) | DEM +23.09% |
| Rhode Island (4) | DEM +20.77% |
| Connecticut (7) | DEM +20.07% |
| Washington (12) | DEM +19.20% |
| Delaware (3) | DEM +18.97% |
| Illinois (19) | DEM +16.99% |
| Oregon (8) | DEM +16.09% |
| New Jersey (14) | DEM +15.94% |
| Colorado (10) | DEM +13.50% |
| New Mexico (5) | DEM +10.79% |
| Virginia (11) | DEM +10.11% |
| Maine (2) | DEM +9.07% |
| New Hampshire (4) | DEM +7.35% |
| Minnesota (10) | DEM +7.11% |
| Nebraska CD-02 (1) | DEM +6.50% |
| Michigan (15) | DEM +2.78% |
| Nevada (6) | DEM +2.39% |
| Pennsylvania (19) | DEM +1.16% |
| Wisconsin (10) | DEM +0.63% |
| Arizona (11) | DEM +0.31% |
| Georgia (16) | DEM +0.24% |
| North Carolina (16) | REP +1.35% |
| Florida (30) | REP +3.36% |
| Texas (40) | REP +5.58% |
| Maine CD-02 (1) | REP +7.44% |
| Ohio (17) | REP +8.03% |
| Iowa (6) | REP +8.20% |
| Alaska (3) | REP +10.06% |
| South Carolina (9) | REP +11.68% |
| Kansas (6) | REP +14.64% |
| Nebraska CD-01 (1) | REP +14.92% |
| Missouri (10) | REP +15.39% |
| Indiana (11) | REP +16.07% |
| Montana (4) | REP +16.37% |
| Mississippi (6) | REP +16.55% |
| Louisiana (8) | REP +18.61% |
| Nebraska (2) | REP +19.06% |
| Utah (6) | REP +20.48% |
| Tennessee (11) | REP +23.21% |
| Alabama (9) | REP +25.46% |
| Kentucky (8) | REP +25.94% |
| South Dakota (3) | REP +26.16% |
| Arkansas (6) | REP +27.62% |
| Idaho (4) | REP +30.77% |
| Oklahoma (7) | REP +33.09% |
| North Dakota (3) | REP +33.34% |
| West Virginia (4) | REP +38.93% |
| Wyoming (3) | REP +43.38% |
| Nebraska CD-03 (1) | REP +53.02% |
The tipping-point state per the above is Wisconsin.