Election Yard will make, track, and update 2024 election predictions between now and Election Day, November 5.
This election is a big (expletive) deal as the current president might say, and for the next two months, we will try our hand at seeing where this will go.
Contained within these pages are predictions for every state, including the presidential race, gubernatorial races, Senate races, and House races.
2024 Election Predictions: What We’re Featuring
Links to the pages in our 2024 election predictions center are below.
- PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PREDICTIONS: Election Yard offers the current prediction on the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in each state.
- US SENATE ELECTION PREDICTIONS: State-level predictions for all 34 US Senate races occurring in 2024.
- US HOUSE ELECTION PREDICTIONS: Individual predictions for all 435 US House races. From the linked page, you may click on the state in which you are interested in seeing individual race ratings.
- GOVERNOR ELECTION PREDICTIONS: State-level predictions for the 11 states electing a governor this year.
You can also navigate to the predictions at any time on our website by using the top menu.
2024 Election Predictions: Our Rating System
Election predictions on Election Yard use the following rating scale:
- SAFE: We feel there is little to no likelihood of the party we selected losing the seat.
- LIKELY: The selected leading party is probably going to win the election, but we are allowing for a small amount of doubt.
- LEAN: The chosen party is likely at least a few points ahead, but this race could theoretically be in play.
- TILT: We believe the chosen party is ahead, but by very little, and the seat is in play.
- TOSS-UP: The race is too close to call at this time and could go either way.
All toss-up rated races will be cleared out prior to Election Day.
Current State of the Race as of Sept. 1
In the presidential election, we have Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump, but both are well short of the 270 electoral votes needed. Harris sits at 226, Trump at 219, with 93 toss-up electoral votes. These come from seven states which we have already featured.
The race for the Senate favors the Republicans, who need one of the two following scenarios to claim the majority: (1) Gain one seat and win the presidency, or (2) Gain two seats. West Virginia is a very likely Republican gain, meaning they need just one more. As of now, we have not handed it to them, but Montana and Ohio will be two of the most key races to watch.
As of now, we do not have either party reaching 218 seats in the US House contest. At present, we see 19 races as toss-ups. The size of the theoretical playing field for House seats is small, in our opinion: It is somewhere between 29 and 48 seats that we consider competitive. Meanwhile, we have 335 seats rated as “safe.”
Finally, in the races for governor in eleven states, the Republicans will win most, and the vast majority will not be competitive. Keep your eyes on North Carolina and New Hampshire.
