The US Senate Races update for late September 2024 is here, with less than six weeks to go until the election.
2024 is shaping up to be a difficult cycle for Democrats, who had many more seats to defend than the GOP. Not only that, but the vast majority of GOP seats on the board are safe, so that has presented limited opportunities for them to go on offense, while they find themselves on defense in a handful of critical states. The Senate math is not ideal for them, and a best-case scenario would be manifesting a 50-50 tie and hoping they hold onto the White House.
We prepared a new and mildly exciting YouTube update in which we go through 11 races which will decide control of the chamber for the next two years.
September 2024 US Senate Races Update
In this video, we go through race ratings, candidates, and general updates on the following Senate races:
- Arizona
- Florida
- Maryland
- Michigan
- Montana
- Nebraska (regular)
- Nevada
- Ohio
- Pennsylvania
- Texas
- Wisconsin
The other 23 are not considered competitive, but if something happens in the next month and they become as such, we will be the first to let you know.
What Is Our Current Senate Prediction?
Check out our Senate prediction page for the latest updates. As of now, we have the GOP over the top at 51 Senate seats. This will secure them a majority regardless of how the presidential election resolves.
US Senate Races Update: Where Are the “Sleeper Races?”
By this, we mean Senate elections where it was previously assumed that one party would win with ease, but it might end up being a lot closer than expected.
Florida (R): Rick Scott is running for a second term against Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Pundits and prognosticators are hesitant to give Mucarsel-Powell much of a chance after Democrats had a disastrous midterm election in the state, but Scott’s polling is not indicative of a blowout race.
Nebraska (R): This state rarely elects Democrats anymore, but Deb Fischer isn’t running against a Democrat, rather an independent who has spurned Democrats and other parties from endorsing him. Limited polling has shown a surprisingly close race, but we are waiting for reputable pollsters to get involved before declaring this one an upset special.
Texas (R): Ted Cruz had a scare in 2018, and this time against Colin Allred, he could be in for another one. Texas has become a little less red over time, as evidenced by presidential election results which have been trending in that direction, and the legislature has more Democrats now than at the peak of GOP control in the 2010s. This is not to say Texas is becoming a blue state, but if it ever does, Democrats have to win something, somewhere, at some point to start the process. Cruz does not have high favorables so they might not get a better chance in the near term.
