The following are the Quebec 2025 Canadian election predictions for the April 28th federal vote.
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Quebec 2025 Canadian Election Prediction: Overall Picture
Eastern Quebec
| Bellechasse — Les Etchemins — Lévis |
| Dominique Vien (CPC) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): CPC 52.00%, BQ 22.76%, Lib 15.55% |
| Prediction: Conservative Hold |
| Côte-du-Sud — Rivière-du-Loup — Kataskomiq — Témiscouata |
| Bernard Généreux (CPC) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): CPC 44.88%, BQ 29.81%, Lib 19.05% |
| Prediction: Conservative Hold |
| Gaspésie — Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine — Listuguj |
| Diane Lebouthillier (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 44.34%, Lib 39.76%, CPC 8.26% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| Rimouski — La Matapédia |
| Maxime Blanchette-Joncas (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 54.30%, Lib 22.08%, CPC 11.20% |
| Prediction: Bloc Quebecois Hold |
Saguenay & Côte-Nord
| Chicoutimi – Le Fjord |
| Richard Martel (CPC) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): CPC 40.37%, BQ 34.07%, Lib 18.22% |
| Prediction: Conservative Hold |
| Côte-Nord — Kawawachikamach — Nitassinan |
| Marilène Gill (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 52.63%, CPC 21.83%, Lib 18.70% |
| Prediction: Bloc Quebecois Hold |
| Jonquière |
| Mario Simard (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 43.11%, CPC 28.31%, Lib 20.80% |
| Prediction: Bloc Quebecois Hold |
| Lac-Saint-Jean |
| Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 50.90%, CPC 25.27%, Lib 18.97% |
| Prediction: Bloc Quebecois Hold |
| Montmorency – Charlevoix |
| Caroline Desbiens (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 36.70%, CPC 33.88%, Lib 20.20% |
| Prediction: Conservative GAIN from Bloc Quebecois |
Capitale-Nationale (Quebec City)
| Beauport – Limoilou |
| Julie Vignola (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 31.06%, CPC 30.54%, Lib 24.64% |
| Prediction: Conservative GAIN from Bloc Quebecois |
| Charlesbourg – Haute-Saint-Charles |
| Pierre Paul-Hus (CPC) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): CPC 45.02%, BQ 24.64%, Lib 19.65% |
| Prediction: Conservative Hold |
| Louis-Hébert |
| Joël Lightbound (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 38.21%, BQ 27.00%, CPC 24.31% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| Louis-Saint-Laurent — Akiawenhrahk |
| Gérard Deltell (CPC) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): CPC 52.03%, BQ 20.13%, Lib 17.34% |
| Prediction: Conservative Hold |
| Québec Centre |
| Jean-Yves Duclos (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 35.72%, BQ 29.03%, CPC 18.02% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
Central Quebec
| Bécancour — Nicolet — Saurel — Alnôbak |
| Louis Plamondon (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 54.81%, Lib 16.90%, CPC 16.81% |
| Prediction: Bloc Quebecois Hold |
| Berthier — Maskinongé |
| Yves Perron (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 35.93%, NDP 32.69%, Lib 15.40% |
| Prediction: Bloc Quebecois Hold |
| Joliette – Manawan |
| Gabriel Ste-Marie (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 55.14%, Lib 22.28%, CPC 9.47% |
| Prediction: Bloc Quebecois Hold |
| Lévis — Lotbinière |
| Jacques Gourde (CPC) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): CPC 49.70%, BQ 22.82%, Lib 15.37% |
| Prediction: Conservative Hold |
| Montcalm |
| Luc Thériault (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 53.22%, Lib 19.98%, CPC 11.68% |
| Prediction: Bloc Quebecois Hold |
| Portneuf – Jacques-Cartier |
| Joël Godin (CPC) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): CPC 52.35%, BQ 23.74%, Lib 15.15% |
| Prediction: Conservative Hold |
| Repentigny |
| Monique Pauzé (BQ) – Not Running |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 51.37%, Lib 28.14%, CPC 8.84% |
| Prediction: Bloc Quebecois Hold |
| Saint-Maurice – Champlain |
| François-Philippe Champagne (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 42.45%, BQ 30.07%, CPC 18.00% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| Trois-Rivières |
| René Villemure (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 29.49%, CPC 29.35%, Lib 28.63% |
| Prediction: Conservative GAIN from Bloc Quebecois |
Eastern Townships
| Beauce |
| Richard Lehoux (CPC) – Not Running |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): CPC 48.30, PPC 18.20%, BQ 15.20% |
| Prediction: Conservative Hold |
| Brome – Missisquoi |
| Pascale St-Onge (Lib) – Not Running |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 34.96%, BQ 34.64%, CPC 16.20% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| Compton – Stanstead |
| Marie-Claude Bibeau (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 36.66%, BQ 30.51%, CPC 17.41% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| Drummond |
| Martin Champoux (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 46.62%, Lib 18.78%, CPC 17.93% |
| Prediction: Bloc Quebecois Hold |
| Mégantic — L’Érable — Lotbinière |
| Luc Berthold (CPC) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): CPC 56.26%, BQ 20.07%, Lib 13.63% |
| Prediction: Conservative Hold |
| Richmond – Arthabaska |
| Alain Rayes (Ind) – Not Running |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): CPC 49.88%, BQ 24,76%, Lib 14.95% |
| Prediction: Conservative GAIN from Independent |
| Saint-Hyacinthe – Bagot – Acton |
| Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 47.45%, Lib 22.68%, CPC 13.51% |
| Prediction: Bloc Quebecois Hold |
| Shefford |
| Andréanne Larouche (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 41.92%, Lib 33.49%, CPC 12.13% |
| Prediction: Liberal GAIN from Bloc Quebecois |
| Sherbrooke |
| Élisabeth Brière (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 37.53%, BQ 29.01%, NDP 13.93% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
Montérégie
| Beauharnois — Salaberry — Soulanges — Huntingdon |
| Claude DeBellefeuille (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 48.32%, Lib 27.30%, CPC 11.85% |
| Prediction: Bloc Quebecois Hold |
| Belœil — Chambly |
| Yves-François Blanchet (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 53.53%, Lib 23.43%, NDP 8.52% |
| Prediction: Bloc Quebecois Hold |
| Brossard — Saint-Lambert |
| Alexandra Mendès (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 54.10%, BQ 19.94%, CPC 11.99% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| Châteauguay — Les Jardins-de-Napierville |
| Brenda Shanahan (Lib) – Not Running |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 36.59%, Lib 36.51%, CPC 12.16% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| La Prairie — Atateken |
| Alain Therrien (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 43.73%, Lib 34.61%, CPC 9.94% |
| Prediction: Liberal GAIN from Bloc Quebecois |
| Longueuil — Charles-LeMoyne |
| Sherry Romanado (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 40.44%, BQ 35.28%, NDP 10.33% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| Longueuil — Saint-Hubert |
| Denis Trudel (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 41.20%, Lib 38.32%, NDP 7.95% |
| Prediction: Liberal GAIN from Bloc Quebecois |
| Mont-Saint-Bruno — L’Acadie |
| Stéphane Bergeron (BQ) – Not Running |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 45.49%, Lib 34.12%, CPC 9.69% |
| Prediction: Bloc Quebecois Hold |
| Pierre-Boucher — Les Patriotes — Verchères |
| Xavier Barsalou-Duval (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 54.26%, Lib 25.85%, CPC 8.82% |
| Prediction: Bloc Quebecois Hold |
| Saint-Jean |
| Christine Normandin (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 46.01%, Lib 28.12%, CPC 12.74% |
| Prediction: Bloc Quebecois Hold |
| Vaudreuil |
| Peter Schiefke (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 47.47%, BQ 20.96%, CPC 16.47% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
Île de Montréal
| Ahuntsic-Cartierville |
| Mélanie Joly (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 51.91%, BQ 22.62%, NDP 11.72% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| Bourassa |
| Emmanuel Dubourg (Lib) – Not Running |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 60.39%, BQ 18.70%, NDP 8.00% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| Dorval — Lachine — LaSalle |
| Anju Dhillon (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 52.23%, BQ 15.72%, NDP 13.11% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| Hochelaga — Rosemont-Est |
| Soraya Martinez Ferrada (Lib) – Not Running |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 38.43%, BQ 31.42%, NDP 20.28% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| Honoré-Mercier |
| Vacant – Previously Liberal |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 59.99%, BQ 16.28%, CPC 10.54% |
| Prediction: Liberal Win |
| Lac-Saint-Louis |
| Francis Scarpaleggia (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 56.26%, CPC 18.90%, NDP 13.30% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| La Pointe-de-l’Île |
| Mario Beaulieu (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 46.66%, Lib 32.32%, NDP 9.70% |
| Prediction: Liberal GAIN from Bloc Quebecois |
| LaSalle — Émard — Verdun |
| Louis-Philippe Sauvé (BQ) – Won By-Election |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 43.42%, BQ 21.83%, NDP 19.01% |
| Prediction: Liberal GAIN from Bloc Quebecois |
| Laurier — Sainte-Marie |
| Steven Guilbeault (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 39.51%, NDP 30.43%, BQ 20.13% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| Mount Royal |
| Anthony Housefather (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 57.41%, CPC 24.07%, NDP 8.83% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| Notre-Dame-de-Grâce — Westmount |
| Anna Gainey (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 52.83%, NDP 20.08%, CPC 13.45% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| Outremont |
| Rachel Bendayan (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 44.36%, NDP 27.30%, BQ 15.44% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| Papineau |
| Justin Trudeau (Lib) – Not Running |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 50.30%, NDP 22.68%, BQ 15.04% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| Pierrefonds — Dollard |
| Sameer Zuberi (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 56.01%, CPC 20.83%, NDP 11.54% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| Rosemont — La Petite-Patrie |
| Alexandre Boulerice (NDP) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): NDP 48.57%, Lib 23.17%, BQ 21.37% |
| Prediction: New Democratic Hold |
| Saint-Laurent |
| Emmanuella Lambropoulos (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 59.35%, CPC 18.31%, NDP 10.76% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| Saint-Léonard — Saint-Michel |
| Patricia Lattanzio (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 69.60%, CPC 10.46%, NDP 8.20% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| Ville-Marie — Le Sud-Ouest — Île-des-Sœurs |
| Marc Miller (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 51.37%, NDP 18.08%, CPC 12.82% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
Laval
| Alfred-Pellan |
| Angelo Iacono (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 47.71%, BQ 26.58%, CPC 13.28% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| Laval — Les Îles |
| Fayçal El-Khoury (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 48.93%, BQ 19.08%, CPC 17.71% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| Marc-Aurèle-Fortin |
| Yves Robillard (Lib) – Not Running |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 44.11%, BQ 30.80%, CPC 11.74% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| Vimy |
| Annie Koutrakis (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 50.14%, BQ 22.34%, CPC 13.85% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
Laurentides
| Laurentides — Labelle |
| Marie-Hélène Gaudreau (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 52.31%, Lib 23.47%, CPC 10.50% |
| Prediction: Bloc Quebecois Hold |
| Les Pays-d’en-Haut |
| New Riding |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 47.54%, Lib 25.89%, CPC 11.66% |
| Prediction: Bloc Quebecois Win |
| Mirabel |
| Jean-Denis Garon (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 45.82%, Lib 24.39%, CPC 13.31% |
| Prediction: Bloc Quebecois Hold |
| Rivière-des-Mille-Îles |
| Luc Desilets (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 40.54%, Lib 35.36%, CPC 10.25% |
| Prediction: Liberal GAIN from Bloc Quebecois |
| Rivière-du-Nord |
| Rhéal Éloi Fortin (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 51.60%, Lib 22.47%, CPC 12.04% |
| Prediction: Bloc Quebecois Hold |
| Terrebonne |
| Nathalie Sinclair Desgagné (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 41.40%, Lib 29.37%, CPC 10.46% |
| Prediction: Liberal GAIN from Bloc Quebecois |
| Thérèse-De Blainville |
| Louise Chabot (BQ) – Not Running |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 40.94%, Lib 35.20%, CPC 11.04% |
| Prediction: Liberal GAIN from Bloc Quebecois |
Outaouais & Northern Quebec
| Abitibi — Baie-James — Nunavik — Eeyou |
| Sylvie Bérubé (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 37.92%, Lib 25.97%, CPC 15.85% |
| Prediction: Bloc Quebecois Hold |
| Abitibi — Témiscamingue |
| Sébastien Lemire (BQ) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): BQ 50.61%, Lib 24.11%, CPC 11.69% |
| Prediction: Bloc Quebecois Hold |
| Argenteuil — La Petite-Nation |
| Stéphane Lauzon (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 39.16%, BQ 32.81%, CPC 13.48% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| Gatineau |
| Steven MacKinnon (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 50.05%, BQ 23.42%, CPC 11.11% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| Hull — Aylmer |
| Greg Fergus (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 52.46%, BQ 16.10%, NDP 12.74% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |
| Pontiac — Kitigan Zibi |
| Sophie Chatel (Lib) |
| Last Election (Under New Boundaries If Appl.): Lib 43.86%, CPC 21.40%, BQ 15.17% |
| Prediction: Liberal Hold |