The following are the New South Wales 2025 Australian election predictions for the May 3rd federal election.
This includes all 46 electorates in the state; New South Wales lost a seat on the latest distribution. The Division of North Sydney has been abolished.
In order to return to Australia’s main election prediction page for this campaign, as well as general analysis of the election, please visit this link.
New South Wales 2025 Australian Election Predictions: Overall Picture
| Banks |
| David Coleman (Lib) |
| Last Election (2PP): Lib 53.20%, ALP 46.80% |
| Prediction: Liberal Retain |
| Barton |
| Linda Burney (ALP) – Not Running |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 65.54%, Lib 34.46% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Bennelong |
| Jerome Laxale (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 50.98%, Lib 49.02% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Berowra |
| Julian Leeser (Lib) |
| Last Election (2PP): Lib 59.77%, ALP 40.23% |
| Prediction: Liberal Retain |
| Blaxland |
| Jason Clare (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 64.94%, Lib 35.06% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Bradfield |
| Paul Fletcher (Lib) – Not Running |
| Last Election (2PP): Lib 56.55%, ALP 43.45% |
| Prediction: Liberal Retain |
| Calare |
| Andrew Gee (Ind) – Elected as Nat |
| Last Election (2PP): Nat 65.45%, ALP 34.55% |
| Prediction: National GAIN from Independent |
| Chifley |
| Ed Husic (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 63.47%, Lib 36.53% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Cook |
| Simon Kennedy (Lib) |
| Last Election (2PP): Lib 62.44%, ALP 37.56% |
| Prediction: Liberal Retain |
| Cowper |
| Pat Conaghan (Nat) |
| Last Election (2PP): Nat 59.47%, ALP 40.53% |
| Prediction: National Retain |
| Cunningham |
| Alison Byrnes (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 64.70%, Lib 35.30% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Dobell |
| Emma McBride (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 56.52%, Lib 43.48% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Eden-Monaro |
| Kristy McBain (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 58.20%, Lib 41.80% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Farrer |
| Sussan Ley (Lib) |
| Last Election (2PP): Lib 66.35%, ALP 33.65% |
| Prediction: Liberal Retain |
| Fowler |
| Dai Le (Ind) |
| Last Election (2PP): Ind 51.63%, ALP 48.37% (ALP 55.72% vs. Lib) |
| Prediction: Independent Retain |
| Gilmore |
| Fiona Phillips (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 50.17%, Lib 49.83% |
| Prediction: Liberal GAIN from Labor |
| Grayndler |
| Anthony Albanese (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 78.85%, Lib 21.15% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Greenway |
| Michelle Rowland (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 61.53%, Lib 38.47% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Hughes |
| Jenny Ware (Lib) |
| Last Election (2PP): Lib 57.01%, ALP 42.99% |
| Prediction: Liberal Retain |
| Hume |
| Angus Taylor (Lib) |
| Last Election (2PP): Lib 57.72%, ALP 42.28% |
| Prediction: Liberal Retain |
| Hunter |
| Dan Repacholi A(LP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 54.03%, Nat 45.97% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Kingsford Smith |
| Matt Thistlethwaite (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 64.50%, Lib 35.50% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Lindsay |
| Melissa McIntosh (Lib) |
| Last Election (2PP): Lib 56.34%, ALP 43.66% |
| Prediction: Liberal Retain |
| Lyne |
| David Gillespie (Nat) – Not Running |
| Last Election (2PP): Nat 63.80%, ALP 36.20% |
| Prediction: National Retain |
| Macarthur |
| Michael Freelander (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 58.53%, Lib 41.47% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Mackellar |
| Sophie Scamps (Ind) |
| Last Election (2PP): Ind 52.50%, Lib 47.50% (Lib 58.60% 2PP vs. ALP) |
| Prediction: Independent Retain |
| Macquarie |
| Susan Templeman (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 57.77%, Lib 42.23% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| McMahon |
| Chris Bowen (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 59.49%, Lib 40.51% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Mitchell |
| Alex Hawke (Lib) |
| Last Election (2PP): Lib 60.69%, ALP 39.31% |
| Prediction: Liberal Retain |
| New England |
| Barnaby Joyce (Nat) |
| Last Election (2PP): Nat 66.43%, ALP 33.57% |
| Prediction: National Retain |
| Newcastle |
| Sharon Claydon (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 67.98%, Lib 32.02% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Page |
| Kevin Hogan (Nat) |
| Last Election (2PP): Nat 60.74%, ALP 39.26% |
| Prediction: National Retain |
| Parkes |
| Mark Coulton (Nat) – Not Running |
| Last Election (2PP): Nat 67.84%, ALP 32.16% |
| Prediction: National Retain |
| Parramatta |
| Andrew Charlton (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 54.57%, Lib 45.43% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Paterson |
| Meryl Swanson (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 53.31%, Lib 46.69% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Reid |
| Sally Sitou (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 55.19%, Lib 44.81% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Richmond |
| Justine Elliot (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 58.23%, Nat 41.77% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Riverina |
| Michael McCormack (Nat) |
| Last Election (2PP): Nat 64.85%, ALP 35.15% |
| Prediction: National Retain |
| Robertson |
| Gordon Reid (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 52.26%, Lib 47.74% |
| Prediction: Liberal GAIN from Labor |
| Shortland |
| Pat Conroy (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 55.82%, Lib 44.18% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Sydney |
| Tanya Plibersek (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 66.69%, Grn 33.31% (ALP 75.57% 2PP vs. Lib) |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Warringah |
| Zali Steggall (Ind) |
| Last Election (2PP): Ind 60.96%, Lib 39.04% (Lib 51.43% 2PP vs. ALP) |
| Prediction: Independent Retain |
| Watson |
| Tony Burke (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 65.10%, Lib 34.90% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Wentworth |
| Allegra Spender (Ind) |
| Last Election (2PP): Ind 54.19%, Lib 45.81% (Lib 55.92% 2PP vs. ALP) |
| Prediction: Independent Retain |
| Werriwa |
| Anne Stanley (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 55.82%, Lib 44.18% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Whitlam |
| Stephen Jones (ALP) – Not Running |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 60.07%, Lib 39.93% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |