The following are the Victoria 2025 Australian election predictions for the May 3rd federal election.
This includes all 38 electorates in the state; Victoria lost a seat on the latest distribution. The Division of Higgins has been abolished.
In order to return to Australia’s main election prediction page for this campaign, as well as general analysis of the election, please visit this link.
Victoria 2025 Australian Election Predictions: Overall Picture
| Aston |
| Mary Doyle (ALP) – Won By-Election |
| By-Election (2PP): ALP 53.57%, Lib 46.43% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Ballarat |
| Catherine King (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 62.97%, Lib 37.03% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Bendigo |
| Lisa Chesters (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 62.11%, Lib 37.89% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Bruce |
| Julian Hill (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 56.59%, Lib 43.41% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Calwell |
| Maria Vamvakinou (ALP) – Not Running |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 62.39%, Lib 37.61% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Casey |
| Aaron Violi (Lib) |
| Last Election (2PP): Lib 51.48%, ALP 48.52% |
| Prediction: Liberal Retain |
| Chisholm |
| Carina Garland (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 56.41%, Lib 43.59% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Cooper |
| Ged Kearney (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 75.46%, Lib 24.54% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Corangamite |
| Libby Coker (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 57.60%, Lib 42.40% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Corio |
| Richard Marles (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 62.84%, Lib 37.16% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Deakin |
| Michael Sukkar (Lib) |
| Last Election (2PP): Lib 50.19%, ALP 49.81% |
| Prediction: Liberal Retain |
| Dunkley |
| Jodie Belyea (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 52.70%, Lib 47.30% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Flinders |
| Zoe McKenzie (Lib) |
| Last Election (2PP): Lib 56.70%, ALP 43.30% |
| Prediction: Liberal Retain |
| Fraser |
| Daniel Mulino (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 66.50%, Lib 33.50% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Gellibrand |
| Tim Watts (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 61.54%, Lib 38.46% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Gippsland |
| Darren Chester (Nat) |
| Last Election (2PP): Nat 70.57%, ALP 29.43% |
| Prediction: National Retain |
| Goldstein |
| Zoe Daniel (Ind) |
| Last Election (2PP): Ind 52.87%, Lib 47.13% (Lib 54.80% 2PP vs. ALP) |
| Prediction: Independent Retain |
| Gorton |
| (ALP) – Not Running |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 59.97%, Lib 40.03% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Hawke |
| Sam Rae (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 57.63%, Lib 42.37% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Holt |
| Cassandra Fernando (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 57.12%, Lib 42.88% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Hotham |
| Clare O’Neil (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 64.25%, Lib 35.75% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Indi |
| Helen Haines (Ind) |
| Last Election (2PP): Ind 58.94%, Lib 41.06% (Lib 55.26% 2PP vs. ALP) |
| Prediction: Independent Retain |
| Isaacs |
| Mark Dreyfus (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 56.85%, Lib 43.15% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Jagajaga |
| Kate Thwaites (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 62.35%, Lib 37.65% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Kooyong |
| Monique Ryan (Ind) |
| Last Election (2PP): Ind 52.94%, Lib 47.06% (Lib 54.18% 2PP vs. ALP) |
| Prediction: Independent Retain |
| La Trobe |
| Jason Wood (Lib) |
| Last Election (2PP): Lib 58.69%, ALP 41.31% |
| Prediction: Liberal Retain |
| Lalor |
| Joanne Ryan (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 62.82%, Lib 37.18% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Macnamara |
| Josh Burns (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 62.25%, Lib 37.75% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Mallee |
| Anne Webster (Nat) |
| Last Election (2PP): Nat 68.99%, ALP 31.01% |
| Prediction: National Retain |
| Maribyrnong |
| Vacant – Previously ALP |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 62.45%, Lib 37.55% |
| Prediction: Labor Win |
| McEwen |
| Rob Mitchell (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 53.28%, Lib 46.72% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Melbourne |
| Adam Bandt (Grn) |
| Last Election (2PP): Grn 60.15%, ALP 39.85% (ALP 77.91% 2PP vs. Lib) |
| Prediction: Greens Retain |
| Menzies |
| Keith Wolahan (Lib) |
| Last Election (2PP): Lib 50.68%, ALP 49.32% |
| Prediction: Liberal Retain |
| Monash |
| Russell Broadbent (Ind) – Elected as Lib |
| Last Election (2PP): Lib 52.90%, ALP 47.10% |
| Prediction: Liberal Retain |
| Nicholls |
| Sam Birrell (Nat) |
| Last Election (2PP): Nat 53.81%, Ind 46.19% (Nat 67.15% 2PP vs. ALP) |
| Prediction: National Retain |
| Scullin |
| Andrew Giles (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 65.58%, Lib 34.42% |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |
| Wannon |
| Dan Tehan (Lib) |
| Last Election (2PP): Lib 53.92%, Ind 46.08% (Lib 59.07% 2PP vs. ALP) |
| Prediction: Liberal Retain |
| Wills |
| Peter Khalil (ALP) |
| Last Election (2PP): ALP 58.57%, Grn 41.43% (ALP 75.77% 2PP vs. Lib) |
| Prediction: Labor Retain |